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Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt a Trustworthy Combo Early)

By Ben Heisler

New York Mets starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has a 1.69 ERA in the first inning at home this season; allowing only 3 ER all season.
New York Mets starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has a 1.69 ERA in the first inning at home this season; allowing only 3 ER all season. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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Plenty of baseball fans will be pouring in wagers on tonight's win-or-go-home National League wild card matchup between the San Diego Padres and New York Mets, but you don't have to wait a full nine innings to see your bet pay out.

NRFI (no-run-first-inning) and YRFI (yes-run-first-inning) wagers remain extremely popular for Major League Baseball, and so far in the first two games, despite two very good pitching matchups, the YRFI has hit in both spots.

Before we dive into whether to ride the trend, or fade it for the NRFI this evening, let's take a look at the moneyline odds, run line and total for Game 3.

Padres vs. Mets Game 3 Odds, Run Line and Total for NL Wld Card

BetSided has you covered for the NL wildcard round finale tonight with betting picks, top prop bets and more, but let's dive into today's matchup and see what side is the right side for whether to go with the no-run-first-inning (NRFI) wager, or the yes-run-first-inning (YRFI) bet.

Best NRFI / YRFI Bets Today

Here's how both starters have fared in the first inning this year overall.

  • Joe Musgrove: 30 games, 1.50 ERA, 24 H, 5 ER, .214 BAA, .271 wOBA
  • Chris Bassitt: 30 games, 2.70 ERA, 26 H, 9 ER, .232 BAA, .264 wOBA

Now, let's specify these a little further, adding home/road splits into the mix.

  • Joe Musgrove: 14 games, 1.29 ERA, 10 H, 2 ER, .196 BA, .219 wOBA
  • Chris Bassitt: 16 games, 1.69 ERA, 9 H, 3 ER, .167 BA, .207 wOBA

In 30 total games, these pitchers have allowed a total of five earned runs in the first inning all season based on these respective splits. Musgrove also enters the postseason red-hot, with back-to-back shutout performances in his last 11 innings, and only one run allowed in his last 22 innings for a 0.41 ERA.

Bassitt lasted just 2.2 innings in his Sunday night loss to the Atlanta Braves, but has since had a full week to rest up.

Padres vs. Mets NRFI / YRFI Pick and Prediction

I think we see the YRFI trend in the first two games of the series get bucked in the winner-take-all match.

Both Bassitt and Musgrove have pitched well in the first inning this year, and with the game taking place at Citi Field, it becomes even more advantageous for both these pitchers with Bassitt at home, and Musgrove's splits in the first being better on the road.

-130 odds at PointsBet Sportsbook is the lowest spot I've seen these odds, and don't be surprised to see them keep climbing up throughout the day.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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