Best Prop Bets for Michigan vs. Michigan State in College Football Week 8
By Reed Wallach
Michigan travels to East Lansig to take on rival Michigan State on Saturday night in an in-state rivalry.
While Michigan is expected to win by more than three touchdowns in the eyes of oddsmakers, we can attack this game from a player prop perspective and figure out if J.J. McCarthy can continue to accumulate big enough numbers to keep pace in the Heisman Trophy conversation.
Further, we'll break down how new Spartans quarterback Katin Houser stacks up in his first home start and more!
Here are my three favorite player prop angles for this Week 8 showdown and here's my favorite sportsbook promotion going right now from Caesars Sportsbook.
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Best Prop Bets for Michigan vs. Michigan State in Week 8
- J.J. McCarthy OVER 213.5 Passing Yards
- Blake Corum UNDER 83.5 Rushing Yards
- Katin Houser UNDER 141.5 Passing Yards
J.J. McCarthy OVER 213.5 Passing Yards
McCarthy has only thrown four fourth quarter passes this entire season, which has surpressed his passing yardage for most of the season. He hasn't thrown for 300 yards in a game yet due to Michigan's comprehensive blowouts.
However, this number is simply too low. Even if he is averaging about 20 passes per game, McCarthy is completing 78% of them for more than 10 yards per attempt.
He has cleared this number in his last two games as the Wolverines begin to open up the offense more and more, scoring 104 points, and I believe this number is baking in some of the non conference blowouts and not taking into account the development of the offense in Big Ten play.
Blake Corum UNDER 83.5 Rushing Yards
While Corum is the bellcow back of this Wolverines potent ground game, there's plenty of mouths to feed in the backfield, including Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings.
With that in mind, I'm going to go under this total against a formidable Michigan State rush defense and taking a peek at Corum's Big Ten rushing performances. He has rushed for 52, 69, 74, 97 in Big Ten play and is averaging about 15 carries in those four games.
The Sparty rush defense is top 30 in success rate, EPA/Rush and is allowing less than three-and-a-half yards per carry. The volume and matchup doesn't lend itself to a massive Corum output.
Katin Houser UNDER 141.5 Passing Yards
Houser drew his first start against Rutgers last week and nearly guided the Spartans to victory, but some special teams blunders cost them. In that game, Houser completed 18-of-29 passes for 133 yards and two touchdown passes with the longest being 13 yards.
In a projected blowout, Houser is expected to exceed that mark, but I'm going to go under given he will be going up against one of the best defenses in the country. The Wolverines are near the top in nearly every defensive category, most notably completion percentage allowed (53.9%, good for ninth in the country) and yards per pass attempt allowed (six yards per pass, the 17th best mark).
With no vertical threat on the Sparty offense, the team will struggle to move the ball and the freshman signal caller will fall under this total.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!