College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 8
By Reed Wallach
The marquee matchups keep on coming as Ohio State and Penn State look to stake its claim as a certified College Football Playoff contender on Saturday in Columbus.
While two top 10 teams battle on Saturday afternoon, ranked foes jockeying for PAC-12 positioning meet on Saturday night when Utah travels to USC and Florida State looks to pick off another ranked foe in a primetime showdown against Duke.
There are plenty of Top 25 matchups littered across Saturday's Week 8 slate, let's get to our picks against the spread for ALL of them.
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No. 2 Michigan vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick
PICK: Michigan -24
While Michigan State may get up for this rivalry game, Michigan is hitting another gear this season, winning Big Ten games by an average margin of north of 37 this season. Michigan State got a boost by making a quarterback change that nearly scored the team a win at Rutgers, but the Wolverines' overwhelming defense is going to be the difference in this one and I think the team can win by four scores yet again.
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 3 Ohio State Prediction and Pick
PICK: Ohio State -4.5
No. 16 Duke vs. No. 4 Florida State Prediction and Pick
PICK: Florida State -14
I'm skeptical that Riley Leonard will return from a high ankle sprain in this one, this would be at the front end of his recovery timeline. Meanwhile, if it's not a hobbled Leonard and it's Henry Belin IV, I expect the Duke offense to struggle a ton against an imposing Florida State defensive line. Belin was able to navigate North Carolina State at home, but only completed four passes in the team's 24-3 win.
Now, he has to start in Tallahassee against a College Football Playoff contender. While I respect Duke's defense quite a bit, I believe that the team's inability to sustain drives will be the difference and the Seminoles can pull away.
Arizona State vs. No. 5 Washington Prediction and Pick
PICK: Arizona State +26.5
Central Florida vs. No. 6 Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
PICK: Central Florida +19
UCF's starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee should be back under center this one and 100% after leaving two weeks ago against Kansas. With a full BYE week to prepare, I believe the UCF offense can keep pace with Oklahoma's, who has covered in every game this season (depending on when you bet the Sooners' point spread). The Knights' defense looks putrid on the surface, bottom 10 in key metrics like success rate, but some of the recent score lines are inflating this spread. The team blew a 28-point home game to Baylor in the fourth quarter and lost to Kansas by 30 after being only outgained by less than 200 yards.
I think UCF is rejuvenated out of the BYE with its starting QB back on the field and the Knights keep this relatively close.
No. 8 Texas vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
PICK: Texas -23.5
Washington State vs. No. 9 Oregon Prediction and Pick
The Cougars are going to run into a buzzsaw in this matchup as Oregon is fresh off a painful loss in a game in which the Ducks arguably outplayed Washington. Oregon outgained Washington by 126 yards in the loss, mainly because the team didn't convert any of the three fourth-down tries it had last week.
Don't be mistaken. This team is a machine, covering in its first five games and still sporting the best success rate in the nation and the top net yards per play mark, out-gaining opponents by more than three yards per play.
Washington State's defense is in bad shape at the moment. After being on the field for 96 plays against UCLA, the unit was on the field for 80 snaps against Arizona, allowing 44 points in the process.
The team is outside the top 90 in both rush defense and tackling, according to Pro Football Focus, and will struggle to keep up with the Ducks, who are averaging nearly eight yards per play.
Washington State's offense has some pop in the passing game, but I struggle to see the team finding many answers against a ferocious Ducks' defensive line that has 19 sacks on the year and is 22nd in explosive pass defense.
Washington State doesn't have a semblance of a run game, outside the top 100 in line yards and yards per carry, so a lot will fall on Ward's shoulders. I'll side with the Ducks to hang a big number and blowout the Cougs off the disheartening Washington loss.
Virginia vs. No. 10 North Carolina Prediction and Pick
PICK: Virginia +23.5
No. 17 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Alabama Prediction and Pick
PICK: Alabama -8.5
No. 13 Ole Miss vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick
PICK: Ole Miss -6.5
No. 14 Utah vs. No. 18 USC Prediction and Pick
PICK: USC -7
Utah has done its damage at home this season despite not having quarterback Cam Rising. The team has battled injuries on both sides of the ball and a lackluster offense that is 116th in EPA/Play.
While I don't look favorably on this USC defense, the unit is 105th in EPA/Play and is one of the worst tackling units in the country, I expect we see a spirited effort from the Trojans, who lost its only two regular season games to Utah in the final minute on the road and again to the Utes in the PAC-12 title game.
The Utes have not been able to sustain any sort of offensive flow between Nate Johnson and Braxton Barnes, which will put the defense in dangerous situations against USC's offense which has the best player in the country in Caleb Williams. While Utah's defense grades out nicely in terms of success rate and EPA/Play, there are some holes in the numbers. The team is bottom half of the coverage in rush defense grading per Pro Football Focus and is outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate.
I think USC runs it up on Utah in a revenge spot for the Trojans.
No. 19 LSU vs. Army Prediction and Pick
PICK: Army +30.5
No. 20 Missouri vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick
PICK: Missouri -6.5
No. 22 Air Force vs. Navy Prediction and Pick
PICK: Navy +10.5
When the service academies get together it's always a fierce battle and incredibly low scoring. With few possessions due to both teams run first tendencies and propensity to bleed the play clock, it's hard for teams to get margin on one another. Not to mention, given that both teams practice the unique offense all year long, the teams know how to defend it better than anyone.
Since 2005, service academy vs. service academy matchups have gone UNDER in 43 of 54 matchups (one push). Even with a total sitting at 36 as of this writing, there are simply too few possessions for either team to score.
Further, Air Force enters this one without its starting quarterback Zac Larrier, who suffered a knee injury last week. With limited possessions to score, and the clock constantly bleeding time, I'll happily grab more than a touchdown with the underdog in what should be a competitive home game for the Midshipmen.
YTD: 54-61-4
North Texas vs. No. 23 Tulane Prediction and Pick
PICK: Tulane -20.5
Minnesota vs. No. 24 Iowa prediction and Pick
PICK: Minnesota +3.5
No. 25 UCLA vs. Stanford Prediction and Pick
The Cardinal deserves a ton of praise for the team's comeback effort, but remember, this was a team catching double digits against Colorado on the road and lost to USC and Oregon by a combined 82 points. While UCLA may not be in the caliber, the team has the offensive upside to dispose of the Cardinal even on the road.
Stanford is 128th in net yards per play and 127th in defensive success rate on the ground. That's imperative because I think UCLA needs to lean on the ground game to open up the field for Moore in the passing game. Behind bell-cow Carson Steele and explosive backs TJ Harden and Anthony Adkins (each averaging six yards or more on the ground), I believe the Bruins will attack the Cardinal via the run game with great success.
Once Stanford is committing extra bodies to slow down UCLA's running backs, Moore should have plenty of options downfield to hit explosive plays. Stanford was cooked by Colorado's wide receivers as Shedeur Sanders threw for more than 400 yards in last week's game. UCLA has the type of talent that can burn the Cardinal second that is 126th in EPA/Pass and 123rd in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade.
This is a great bounce-back spot for UCLA, who outgained Oregon State in the team's double-digit loss but poor decision-making from Moore cost the team a signature win. Against a far less talented opponent, UCLA should get back on track with a blowout win.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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