Ole Miss returns from a BYE week on a road trip to Auburn to face a struggling Tigers team, fresh off a 48-18 loss at LSU last week.
Auburn's offense hasn't been able to sniff its competition for most of this season and that's going to pose some trouble against Ole Miss' dynamic offense, led by Jaxson Dart, but is there a way to back the Tigers defense to hold up at home? I'm looking to fade Rebels' rushing props come Saturday night. Keep reading to find out why.
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Best Prop Bets for Ole Miss vs. Auburn in Week 8
- Jaxson Dart UNDER 37.5 Rushing Yards
- Quinshon Judkins UNDER 89.5 Rushing Yards
- Payton Thorne OVER 106.5 Passing Yards
Jaxson Dart UNDER 37.5 Rushing Yards
Auburn has its flaws, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but the team has proved to have a potent rush defense. The team is 25th in Pro Football Focus' rush defense grading and is 53rd in defensive line yards.
Dart has been dangerous with his legs this season, picking up for some of the injuries to key skill position players on the Rebels, but the offensive line is a concern on the road, ranking 90th in offensive line yards and allowing 41 tackles for loss so far this season (90th in the country).
This is right around Dart's median outcome, but I'm going to side with the Auburn defensive line to generate some TFL's and keep Dart under his total.
Quinshon Judkins UNDER 89.5 Rushing Yards
Judkins had a monster freshman season with Ole Miss in 2022, but he has been far more quiet in 2023, partly due to injuries. Maybe the BYE week gave Judkins time to recover, but this expectation remains far too high for the Rebels lead back.
With the emergence of Ulysses Bentley IV, Judkins has lost some of his carries and has only gone over this number once (33 carries for 177 yards against LSU).
While keeping in mind that Auburn has a stout rush defense, I'm going to trust what I've seen on the field this season and go UNDER Judkins' lofty rushing yard prop.
Payton Thorne OVER 106.5 Passing Yards
Thorne has gone over this total twice this season, against UMass and FCS Samford, but this number is simply too low.
Ole Miss' secondary is the weakest part of the defense, 120th in passing success rate this season and 85th in EPA/Pass. While the defensive line does a great job of getting pressure (top 10 in sacks this season), the defense is vulnerable deep.
I also like the idea of playing on Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze playing his former team and scheming up a few gadget plays that can target the Rebels' back seven, giving some more upside to his signal caller's passing yard prop.
It's gross, but let's go over this incredibly low prop.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!