Best Prop Bets for Utah vs. USC in College Football Week 8
By Reed Wallach
USC dropped its first game of the season at Notre Dame last week, but the bright side of that loss was that it won't stop the team's hopes of a PAC-12 title.
The team restarts conference play against Utah, the only team to beat the Trojans in the regular season last year, but is a far different group in 2023 with Cam Rising yet to start under center as he recovers from knee surgery. The Trojans are a considerable home favorite and while it may be hard to bet on Caleb Williams' prop bets due to the current numbers, some of the team's complimentary players are worth a bet.
Here's how I'm betting this PAC-12 showdown from a player prop perspective:
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Best Prop Bets for Utah vs. USC in Week 8
- MarShawn Lloyd OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
- Brenden Rice OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards
- Ja'Quinden Jackson UNDER 75.5 Rushing Yards
MarShawn Lloyd OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Don't miss our best bet on the point spread in this one here with our full game betting preview!
The Trojans fell behind quickly against Notre Dame, so the team had to abandon the run game, but prior to that Lloyd had been on a tear, and I think we are getting a great price on the lead back to go over his rushing yard total.
Lloyd had rushed for north of 70 yards in five straight games and is averaging north of seven yards per carry on the year. While Utah brings in a vaunted defense, I believe some of that is inflated due to the opponents its played and the Trojans will be far and away the most dynamic the team has seen.
Further, the next best offense Utah has seen was Oregon State (which was also on the road), and the Beavers bullied the Utes at the line of scrimmage and the team's lead back Damien Martinez averaged north of four yards per carry for 65 yards.
The Utes thrive at home, but this will be a change of pace and the team will be exposed on defense that has been smoke and mirrors. Pro Football Focus rates this rush defense 97th in the country, and I believe Lloyd can be in for a big outing.
Brenden Rice OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards
Rice has emerged as a key cog in the USC passing game, especially down the field.
26% of Rice's targets have been 20-plus yards, hauling in five of them, and that's where teams can attack this Utes defense. The team is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense and this will be the most talented group of pass catchers the team has seen to date.
Rice was quiet in the loss to Notre Dame, catching only two passes for 18 yards, but prior to that had a string of four games with 75 or more receiving yards and four catches in three of four.
This is my favorite wide out to target in the USC passing game.
Ja'Quinden Jackson UNDER 73.5 Rushing Yards
Jackson has battled injuries this season, but was back on the field last week against Cal and looked like his best self, rushing 22 times for 94 yards. However, I'm going to go under on his rushing yard prop in this one as I believe the Utes are going to be in a negative game script.
Utah was able to pull ahead of Cal and lean on the run game, but with Nate Johnson set to start in this one, the team's lack of passing will put the team behind on the scoreboard and allow the aggressive USC defense to pin its ears back and generate some pressure with a loaded box. In turn, that will stunt the hopes of estabishing the run.
While Jackson has had some big games this season, the Utah offense continues to flounder without Rising under center. The team is 111th in success rate and 116th in EPA/Play, so I can't trust this team that will likely be behind for much of this one to try and keep it on the ground and play keep away from Caleb Williams.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!