Best Prop Bets for Washington State vs. UCLA in College Football Week 6
By Reed Wallach
Washington State has vaulted all the way to No. 13 in the AP Poll behind an undefeated start to the season but will face its toughest test yet against a high-powered UCLA offense on the road.
Both running games will be at the center of attention for different reasons as UCLA's front seven looks to put pressure on the Washington State offensive line while Carson Steele figures to have an explosive day on the ground against the Cougars.
You can read our full game betting preview here, but this article will focus on two prop bets I'm eyeing on Saturday afternoon.
Best Prop Bets for Washington State vs. UCLA in Week 6
- Nakia Watson UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards
- Carson Steele OVER 73.5 Rushing Yards
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Nakia Watson UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards
Washington State is passing on more than 55% of its plays and not getting much traction in the run game, 96th in EPA/Rush. I believe that the team is going to opt to pass often against this UCLA defense that grades out 15th in rush defense per Pro Football Focus and is top 10 in EPA/Rush.
The Bruins' strong point of the defense is in the front seven and pushing offensive lines backward, the team is top 30 in defensive line yards and allowing about two yards per carry.
Washington State's offense already wants to pass, and given the futile effort it will have to establish any sort of run game against this UCLA defense, I expect the team to abandon it completely and for Watson to fall below this already deflated total.
The Wisconsin transfer is averaging less than four yards per carry this season has gone under this number in two of four games, and now has a poor matchup.
I'll take the under here.
Get ready for Week 6 with our picks against the spread for EVERY Week 6 matchup
Carson Steele OVER 73.5 Rushing Yards
The Ball State transfer had a quiet game for UCLA ahead of the teams' bye week, as did the whole offense in Utah. Steele only rushed for 29 yards as the Bruins couldn't establish a ground game, but I expect that to be different at home against a far softer Cougars rush defense.
Washington State is 105th in defensive rush success rate and 84th in explosive rush defense. I expect UCLA to look to establish its run game to set up freshman Dante Moore to tee off on this Washington State defense at home. This is a Bruins offensive line that ranks 13th in PFF's run block grade despite a dismal effort against the Utes in Week 4, and I expect them to look the part on Saturday afternoon.
This is right around expectations for Steele, who cleared this number in the first three games with his new team and this is shaping up to be a great spot for UCLA's offense at home. I'll back Steele to have a big showing off the bye.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!