Best Prop Bets for Wisconsin vs. Purdue in College Football Week 4
By Reed Wallach
Wisconsin and Purdue have both gotten off to shaky starts in 2023, the Badgers pulling away from Georgia Southern to improve to 2-1 while the Boilermakers stand just 1-2 after a difficult non-conference schedule.
The two teams can set the pace in the Big Ten West with a win on Friday night, and you can find out more on how to bet this game here. However, this article is going to target player props for each team in this conference opener. How are the offenses performing so far, and is there value in the player prop market?
Let's discuss:
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Best Prop Bets for Wisconsin vs. Purdue
- Tanner Mordecai OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards
- Will Pauling OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards
- Max Klare OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards
Tanner Mordecai OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards
Purdue's defense is suffering from some growing pains under first year coach Ryan Walters, who joined from Illinois where he was the defensive coordinator.
Last week, Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader ran 25 times for 195 yards in the win against Purdue. While Mordecai is not a noted runner, he has cleared this line in two of three games this season and is averaging nine carries per game.
Against a Purdue defense that is struggling to stop quarterback runs, Mordecai may only need one or two scrambles to clear this low total.
Will Pauling OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards
Wisconsin's offense is going through some growing pains at a transitions to a more pass-happy scheme. Overall, this team is 93rd in EPA/Pass, still lacking that big play element. However, Mordecai has found a good connection with Will Pauling. The 5'10" sophomore had a quiet outing against Georgia Southern, hauling in one of two targets for 16 yards, but this is a nice opportunity for us to buy the dip.
In the two games prior, Pauling had five catches in each for over 50 yards, totaling 133 yards on 10 catches and 12 targets. He has a pretty steady role in this offense, being used on screen passes and short routes, using his speed to turn up field, so I expect the usage to be there against a Purdue defense that is bottom half of the country in EPA/Pass this season.
Max Klare OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards
This Badgers defense is not what's been in recent memory. The team got bailed out by forcing six turnovers against Georgia Southern, who nearly amassed 500 yards in Madison last weekend. Currently, Wisconsin is outside the top 100 in passing success rate as the team heads on the road to face Graham Harrell's air-raid offense with quarterback Hudson Card playing at a solid level.
The Boilermakers offense is inside the top 30 in EPA/Pass and Klare has been a big factor, hauling in 15 catches for 151 yards. The 6'4" freshman has had a reception for at least 20 yards in each of the past two games and against a lackluster Wisconsin pass defense, can rip one again in a game that I project to be higher scoring than expected.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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