Best Prop Bets for Tennessee vs. Alabama in College Football Week 8
By Reed Wallach
Tennessee and Alabama meet after arguably the game of the regular season last year in Knoxville, Tennessee.
The two teams meet again, this time in Tuscaloosa, Alabama on Saturday as two ranked foes meet again. However, the teams are far different than last year's 52-49 thriller and this should be a defensive-minded affair. You can check out our game preview here for more, but this is going to focus on player props for the likes of Tennessee's quarterback Joe Milton.
Best Prop Bets for Tennessee vs. Alabama in Week 8
- Joe Milton UNDER 191.5 Passing Yards
- Squirrel White UNDER 47.5 Receiving Yards
- Jase McClellan UNDER 64.5 Rushing Yards
Get a pick against the spread for EVERY Top 25 matchup on Saturday's Week 8
Joe Milton UNDER 191.5 Passing Yards
This is not the same Tennessee offense. The unit wants to play fast and move the ball down the field, but Milton has been far too ineffective through the air to trust it. The unit has leaned on the ground game and that's kept the team afloat to date.
Overall this season, the Tennessee passing game is 95th in EPA/Play and Milton is fresh off a game against a poor Texas A&M secondary in which he completed 11-of-22 passes for 100 yards.
Further, the team is operating without Bru McCoy for the second full game, the team's top wide receiver target, who suffered a leg injury against South Carolina. Another hit to the Vols passing game.
I imagine Alabama will slow this game down and will try to keep the Vols up-tempo attack on the sideline because of its ability to tip games with some quick shots, but ultimately, Milton is not worth trusting to get to nearly 200 yards on the road against the best defense he will have faced this season.
Squirrel White UNDER 47.5 Receiving Yards
White has had some big outings, but also some clunkers. He is averaging about 50 yards per game this season, anchored by a 104-yard outing against South Carolina.
However, I'm going to go under on White as I don't trust him to find space to rip off big plays. 42% of White's targets come behind the line of scrimmage where he averages six yards per catch, according to Pro Football Focus.
Alabama's pass defense is loaded and should limit big plays for the Tennessee offense as Milton is completing only 22% of his passes of 20-plus yards. So, if Alabama is going to bring pressure and put bodies in the box to slow down safe passes to White and dare Milton to win deep, it's going to be a long afternoon for the Vols offense.
This is another fade of the Tennessee passing game by going under White's receiving yards prop. It's a poor matchup schematically for him.
Jase McClellan UNDER 64.5 Rushing Yards
Tennessee's defense had its flaws last season, but the defensive line has been loaded this year. The team is 12th in defensive rush success rate and allowing less than three yards per carry with a top 10 mark in defensive line yards.
While McClellan is the lead running back for the Crimson Tide offense, this is right on his season-long average, so for him to go over this would be an above-average output. I don't see it. Against this aforementioned Tennessee defensive line, I expect them to dictate the terms of engagement at the line of scrimmage.
Alabama's offensive line is outside the top 100 in tackles for loss allowed and is averaging less than four yards per carry, 95th in the country. Overall, the ground game is right at the national average in success rate on the ground (65th) and this matchup doesn't suit the unit nicely.
I expect McClellan to have a fine effort but stay under this total in what is likely to be a defensive slugfest.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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