Best Prop Bets for Texas A&M vs. Tennessee in College Football Week 7
By Reed Wallach
Tennessee is in an enticing position to grab a signature win at home against Texas A&M, who is now likely drawing dead in the SEC West race after losing to Albama at home.
Both of these teams have had issues at quarterback as Tennessee's Joe Milton has struggled to find the touch on his deep ball while new starting quarterback Max Johnson has been prone to some questionable decisions. Can the Aggies find answers in the run game against an improved Tennessee defense?
Here are my favorite prop bets for this Week 7 showdown:
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Best Prop Bets for Texas A&M vs. Tennessee in Week 7
- Joe Milton UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Jaylen Wright OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards
- Le'Veon Moss UNDER 70.5 Rushing Yards
Joe Milton UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
This Tennessee offense isn't what you would think if you look back to last year's explosvie group that carved opposing defenses up through the air.
Joe Milton is struggling quite a bit in this Vols offense, the team is bottom half of the country in EPA/Pass, and he has thrown only nine touchdown passes through five games against a fairly limited set of defenses.
Tennessee has taken a run-first approach this season behind a vaunted offensive line that is top five in line yards. When the Vols get in close to the end, I don't trust Milton to make the accurate throws into the end zone to generate touchdowns. I believe that head coach Josh Heupel will lean on the ground game quite a bit against a Texas A&M team that could be running on fumes, playing its fourth straight SEC opponent.
This game could figure to be more of a defensive minded matchup despite two highly regarded offenses, I will go with the + money on Milton's passing touchdown prop as my way to fade him.
Jaylen Wright OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards
Texas A&M's rush defense is the strong point of the unit, but I think Tennessee's offensive line may be able to get its strong set of running backs going on Saturday afternoon, especially with center Cooper Mays set to make his second start of the season after making his season debut against South Carolina two weeks ago.
Wright is averaging north of seven yards per carry on a team high 61 carries. He has cleared this number in all but one game (four carries for 16 yards against UTSA) and could be used as a battering ram for this Vols offense to lean on a fatigued Aggies defensive line.
The Texas A&M defense is strong against the run, but this number is underselling the Tennessee ground game this season at home off of a bye. Take Wright to soar over this total.
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Le'Veon Moss UNDER 70.5 Rushing Yards
Moss is the leading back for what has been an inefficient rushing attack for Texas A&M. The team is outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush and success rate and Tennessee has been strong against the ground game, top 10 in rush success rate on defense.
The Vols had a leaky defense last season, but the unit has been stout this season, posting an explosive play rate of just 9% this season, 31st in the nation. I believe that A&M will be forced to try and beat Tennessee's defense through the air as the team struggles to establish the run on the road.
Moss did run for 97 yards against Auburn and 107 against Arkansas, but those were in positive game scripts. I believe in a competitive game that the team may be chasing a refreshed Tennessee team off a bye on the road, Moss may be limited from a rushing stand point.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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