Bet These Three Longshots to Make MLB Playoffs in 2022 (Guardians, Red Sox, Giants Poised to Make Charge)
By Joe Summers
We're nearly a third of the way through the MLB season and teams are starting to establish themselves as contenders and pretenders.
Some teams, like the New York Mets and Yankees, are running away with their divisions and making those that invested in their preseason futures look very smart. Others, like my hometown Kansas City Royals, are an unmitigated disaster bringing shame to an entire city.
But a lot of clubs are somewhere in the middle. Maybe they started hot and are trying to regain that form (Minnesota), maybe they started slow but are finding their groove (Toronto), or maybe they've been average yet have reason for optimism (Atlanta).
With so many teams' identities not yet fully established, there's still plenty of value on the MLB Futures board at WynnBET to get some bets down on teams that can make a run to the playoffs and beyond.
Using the odds from WynnBET, let's check out three longshots to bet to make the MLB Playoffs in 2022.
Three Longshots to Make MLB Playoffs
Cleveland Guardians
Listed at +1000 to win the AL Central, +5000 to win the AL Pennant, and +10000 to win the World Series, the Cleveland Guardians are easily my favorite futures bet on the board.
I explained why I liked the Guardians' outlook two weeks ago, and since then they've overtaken the White Sox in the AL Central and sit just 4.5 games behind Minnesota. Cleveland has won six of their last eight, yet their odds haven't improved? That's a mistake, in my opinion, and we should take advantage before sportsbooks catch on.
The Guardians have the fifth-best run differential in the American League, one run behind Minnesota, thanks to a strong pitching staff, improving lineup, and excellent defense.
Cleveland's team ERA (3.72) ranks 11th in MLB, their runs per game (4.59) is ninth, and they have the fourth-most Outs Above Average defensively in the league.
Injuries and inconsisteny have plagued them, but the Guardians' foundation is that of a contender. At the very least, their current odds to make the postseason do not reflect the makeup of the roster.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are one of the hottest teams in the league after enduring a disastrous April. They've clawed back over .500 and are 18-8 in their last 26 games, yet are still being treated by oddsmakers as a losing team.
WynnBET has the Red Sox at +4000 to win the AL East, +2500 to win the AL Pennant, and +6000 to win the World Series. It's wild that their odds to win their division are so much worse than their odds to make the World Series, but that's a testament to how good the Yankees have been.
Boston checks every box we're looking for in a contender, though. They have the sixth-best run differential in all of baseball and third-best in the American League as they're destroying opponents on the road. They average the most runs per game in the AL while their pitching staff has the fourth-lowest team ERA in the AL. As a bonus, they have the eighth-most Outs Above Average defensively in MLB.
Sure, the Red Sox were an absolute disaster in April. But it's not April anymore, and since the calendar switched they've been one of the best teams in the sport. Don't think twice and take the overwhelming value on Boston.
San Francisco Giants
Another team I picked to get hot two weeks ago is a team I still believe in, the Giants. They've been quite unlucky this seaosn but still have a 29-24 record, just 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL East.
San Francisco is listed at +900 to win the NL East, +1200 to win the NL Pennant, and +2500 to win the World Series, but their value as a team exceeds those numbers.
Most arguments in favor of the Giants start with their rotation. Carlos Rodon, Logan Webb, and Alex Cobb make up a trio that can go toe-to-toe with any team in the league. Their underlying metrics are much better than their box score ones, especially in Cobb's case, so we can expect positive regression moving forward.
Rodon and Webb both rank in the top-10 in expected ERA among all NL qualified pitchers, and Alex Cobb's rate of 2.04 would easily lead the league if he had enough innings to qualify. As the season goes, expect San Francisco's pitching staff to continually put them in position to win.
But their lineup is what's really impressed me. They average the third-most runs per game in MLB and the second-most walks per game. Their patient approach has paid dividends and will continue to do so, especially as they get a bit healthier.
The Giants have as good an underlying profile as any team in baseball. Their warts come on the defensive end, where they rank 27th in Outs Above Average, but their pitching staff is so good they can mitigate the damage. At these odds, I'll happily back a team that profiles as one of the best in the sport moving forward.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.