Bettors Should Think Twice Before Betting Chiefs as Big Favorites

October 23, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15)
October 23, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

There's no doubt the Kansas City Chiefs remain one of the best teams in the NFL.

They're coming off their bye week sitting at 5-2, and are in prime position to win the AFC West. In Week 9, they'll face a fellow 5-2 team in the Tennessee Titans at home in primetime at Arrowhead Stadium.

Despite the same record, the Chiefs are massive favorites against the AFC South-leading Titans.

Are they an auto-bet when they match up on Sunday Night Football? These trends suggest you should be cautious before laying down money on Kansas City.

Titans vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football Odds

Chiefs Struggle as Big Favorites

According to Chris Raybon of the Action Network, the Chiefs are 7-18 (28%) against the spread when being set as a favorite of more than three points, dating back to November 8th, 2020. Now, they are 12.5-point favorites against the Titans on Sunday evening.

While the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes have been phenomenal in primetime, they've had some issues covering the number in their home stadium. In his career, Mahomes is only 20-21-1 ATS at Arrowhead, despite a 33-9 straight up record, while going 5-7 ATS at home in primetime. The Chiefs have also failed to cover in all three of their home games this year.

Despite the harsh record as more than a 3-point favorite over nearly the last two years, things aren't quite as bad when looking at double-digit spreads. Dating back to the start of the 2020 season, the Chiefs are 5-6 ATS when set as a double-digit favorite. They're also 3-1 ATS the last four times they've been in that spot.

This weekend's game will be a rematch of last year's matchup, where the Titans took down the Chiefs by a final score of 27-3. The Titans are 5-1 both straight up and against the spread against Kansas City dating back to 2014.

If you want to see BetSided's Josh Yourish's best bet for the game, check out his betting preview here..

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.