Beware the Russell Wilson Underdog Narrative for Seahawks vs. Rams
By Ben Heisler
For almost 10 years, whenever the Seattle Seahawks got posted as underdogs by the sportsbooks, sharp bettors would run to bet on Russell Wilson and company.
After all, Wilson throughout his career has gone 29-16-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, covering at 64.4% clip. For comparison's sake, only two other NFL teams besides Seattle have been in the same zip code when it comes to covering at that percentage as an underdog since 2012: The Steelers (67.3%), and the Saints (36-20-1).
Data analyst John Ewing is always sending out useful betting trends and notes on Twitter and he tweeted this out about Wilson's success as an underdog.
From 2012-2018, Wilson covered at a 69% rate, going 22-10-2 ATS. In the last three years, however, he's only gone 7-6 vs. the number
Russell Wilson against the spread as an underdog:
— John Ewing ? (@johnewing) December 21, 2021
2012-2018: 22-10-2 (69%) ATS
2019-2021: 7-6 ATS@Seahawks +7 at Rams.
Can Wilson and the Seahawks Be Counted on to Cover vs. the Rams?
Right now at WynnBET, the Rams, despite having as many as 21 players on the reserve/COVID-19 list throughout the week remain 6.5-point favorites at home against Wilson and the Seahawks.
Our Iain MacMillan is on board with the Rams, even when they were a full touchdown favorite at -7, citing the Rams' ability to make plays deep downfield, and also put pressure on Wilson.
"I expect Los Angeles to be able to torch this Seahawks secondary that ranks 23rd in opponent yards per pass attempt and 22nd in both opponent completion percentage and average opponent passer rating.
The Seattle offense has allowed the second highest quarterback sacked rate. They're giving up a sack on 9.26% of drop backs, which isn't a good recipe when facing the likes of Aaron Donald and Von Miller. I'll lay the points with the Rams in this NFC West battle."
Seattle may have won two straight, including a big division win a few weeks ago at home vs. the 49ers, but the Rams are a different animal who beat them in their building by 9 in early October.
With either Wilson and/or Carroll likely on their way out of town and several Rams players looking more and more available, including Von Miller, the Russ Underdog Magic bandwagon may start emptying out.