Betsided

Bills-Chiefs Total on the Move Ahead of Divisional Round Matchup

By Ben Heisler

Buffalo Bills players celebrate a touchdown in their last victory over the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 5 at Arrowhead Stadium.
Buffalo Bills players celebrate a touchdown in their last victory over the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 5 at Arrowhead Stadium. / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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After Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Kansas City Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes each threw for five touchdowns in their Wild Card Weekend wins, it wasn't much of a surprise to see the sportsbooks open the projected total at a high number.

Now, that number is decisively on its way down.

After opening at 54.5, sitting at 55, with -110 odds (bet $110 to win $100) on both the over and under throughout the week at WynnBET Sportsbook, the line has dropped down to 53.5, a one-and-a-half point swing in the direction of the under.

At the time, the projected 55 points would have tied the third-highest total in the Divisional Round in the postseason since 2009.

  • 2014: San Diego Chargers 17, Denver Broncos 24 - UNDER (55)
  • 2021: Cleveland Browns 17, Kansas City Chiefs 22 - UNDER (55.5)
  • 2009: Arizona Cardinals 14, New Orleans Saints 45 - OVER (57)

With both teams boasting elite offenses and quarterbacks, what's likely behind the line move?

Many times, a major shift towards the under is due to weather. But the forecast in Kansas City on Sunday is supposed to be terrific for a mid-January game with clear skies and temperatures hovering in the mid to high 30's before tailing off to the low 30's towards the end of the night.

In this case, however, I think bettors may have forgotten about how dominant both defenses have been this season.

The Bills own the top-ranked DVOA defense in the via Football Outsiders while also allowing the fewest total points and yards allowed in the NFL. The Chiefs' defense has also been outstanding during the second half of the season, becomming the only team other than the "Legion of Boom" Seattle Seahawks to allow 10 points or fewer in a stretch of five out of seven games.

Earlier in the week, our Reed Wallach shared his perspective on the high total, indicating that bettors shouldn't be afraid of the large over/under due to the dominance of both offenses this season. BetSided's Jon Helmkamp echoed a similar sentiment, while highlighting that the forecast in Kansas City will feel like a summer vacation for the Bills after playing in sub-zero temperatures last week.

While the argument for either side remains in play, if you're considering the OVER, now would be the ideal time to jump on if you haven't already.

How do the BetSided editors "Power Rank" their favorite Divisional Round bets, including Bills vs. Chiefs?

Check out the latest episode of "Bet & Breakfast" below to find out!

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