What are the Highest Totals in NFL Divisional Round Playoff History?
By Ben Heisler
The No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs host the No. 3 seed Buffalo Bills in the final NFL Divisional Round game of the weekend Sunday evening at 6:30 p.m. EST, as both teams come off dominant offensive performances at home.
The Chiefs stomped the 7-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21 last Sunday night at Arrowhead as Patrick Mahomes ironically joined Ben Roethlisberger as the only two players to throw for more than 400 passing yards and more than five passing touchdowns in one playoff game.
Patrick Mahomes is one of only two quarterbacks in NFL history with 400+ passing yards and 5+ passing touchdowns in a single playoff game. The other is Ben Roethlisberger, who did so in January of 2018. pic.twitter.com/LqrZluGE2Z
— Elias Sports Bureau (@EliasSports) January 17, 2022
Meanwhile, the Bills destroyed their AFC East division rival New England Patriots 47-17 as Josh Allen also threw for five touchdowns, while also becoming the first Buffalo quarterback ever to throw for that many touchdowns with zero interceptions in a postseason game. He also put up a stat line that could be a possible hint at a Super Bowl appearance later this season.
Josh Allen had 5 pass TD and 0 INT for the Bills tonight
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) January 16, 2022
The only QB to finish a game with 5+ pass TD & 0 INT vs a team with Bill Belichick as its head coach was Drew Brees in Week 12, 2009 (5 pass TD in 38-17 win)
Brees and the @Saints went on to win the Super Bowl that season
The Chiefs currently sit as 2.5-point favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook, but with both offenses lighting up the scoreboard last week, the total of 55 is one the highest in divisional round history. With bettors likely to want to back the over, how does that number compare to some of the highest totals ever set in the Divisional Round?
Want even more bets to back ahead of the Divisional Round? Check out the latest episode of "Bet & Breakfast" below:
How Have Totals of 55 or Greater Fared in NFL Divisional Round History?
According to StatHead, there have only been three times where the total closed at 55 points or higher in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The UNDER has gone 2-1 in those three games with the highest final score finishing at 59 points.
Here's how each matchup fared:
- 2014: San Diego Chargers 17, Denver Broncos 24 - UNDER (55)
- 2021: Cleveland Browns 17, Kansas City Chiefs 22 - UNDER (55.5)
- 2009: Arizona Cardinals 14, New Orleans Saints 45 - OVER (57)
Is the Bills-Chiefs Over/Under Too High?
While the divisional round sample size is just three games, BetSided's Reed Wallach pointed out on Monday that in 28 playoff games with a total of 55 or greater, the game has hit the over 57% of the time.
I'm personally leaning towards the under despite two elite quarterbacks matching up against each other.
The Bills still have the No. 1 ranked DVOA defense in the league according to Football Outsiders while giving up the fewest total points and yards allowed in the NFL. The Chiefs, despite giving up 21 points to the Steelers (14 were in garbage time and one touchdown came off a turnover recovery by T.J. Watt, held the Steelers to only 44 yards of offense and two first downs in the first half.
As tempting as it may be to back two high powered offenses, don't forget about both teams' impressive defenses that will also come ready to play.