Betsided

Bills vs Chiefs Betting Cheatsheet (How to Bet the AFC Divisional Playoff Game)

By Matt De Saro

Before you bet, take a look at this cheat sheet for the Bills vs Chiefs Divisional Round matchup.
Before you bet, take a look at this cheat sheet for the Bills vs Chiefs Divisional Round matchup. / JAMIE GERMANO/ROCHESTER DEMOCRAT AND
facebooktwitterreddit

The Buffalo Bills pulled out a massive win over the New England Patriots last week thanks to a record-setting performance by QB Josh Allen. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs made short work of the Steelers 42-21. The final score doesn’t do a good job indicating how bad the Steelers looked in this game and the Chiefs came alive in the second half to win with ease.

The two meet up this week and while we have several betting previews for this game, we thought it would be useful to put together a quick cheat sheet for readers to refer to. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Info for Spread Bettors

  • The Chiefs are currently -1.5 (-101) favorites at WynnBET
  • The Chiefs opened as -2 favorites with early bets on the Bills pushing the spread 0.5 points toward the underdogs.
  • The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. 
  • The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Chiefs. 
  • The Chiefs are 5-5 ATS as home favorites. 
  • The Chiefs are 9-9 ATS as a favorite. 
  • The Bills are 5-3 ATS as an away team. 
  • The Bills are 7-5-1 ATS in conference games. 
  • The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. 
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Info for Moneyline Bettors

  • The Chiefs are -125 on the moneyline (bet $125 to win $100).
  • The Bills are +105 on the moneyline (bet $100 to win $105). 
  • The Bills are 5-0 SU in their last five games. 
  • The Bills are 2-5 SU in their last seven games against the Chiefs. 
  • The Bills are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games against the AFC. 
  • The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games. 
  • The Chiefs are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against the AFC. 
  • The Chiefs are 6-1 SU in their last seven games against the AFC East. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Info for Over/Under Bettors

  • The Over/Under for this game is 54 points (Over -110/Under -110)
  • The Over/Under for this game opened at 54.5. 
  • The OVER is 4-2 in the Bills’ last six games. 
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the Bills’ last seven games on the road. 
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the Bills’ last five games against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. 
  • The OVER is 6-0 in the Chiefs’ last six games. 
  • The UNDER is 12-6 in the last 18 games between these two teams. 
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last five home games against the Bills. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Info for ALL Bettors

  • The Bills are the No. 3 ranked scoring offense in the NFL at 29.4 PPG. 
  • The Bills are the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at 17 PPG. 
  • The Bills give up just 1.9 touchdowns on average per game. 
  • The Bills are the No. 1 ranked defense in terms of yards per pass and total passing yards per game. 
  • The Chiefs lead the NFL in third-down conversions rate at 53 percent. 
  • The Chiefs are No. 2 in the NFL in fourth-down conversion rate at 66.67 percent. 
  • The Chiefs defense ranks 30th in the NFL in opponent’s yards per rush at 4.7.
  • The Chiefs are the No. 2 passing offense in the NFL in terms of yards and total passes per game. 

Verdict

BetSided NFL guru Jon Helmkamp is backing the OVER with a pair of high-caliber offenses playing in a must-win game. While I don’t disagree, I am going to add my own take on this game. I love the underdogs in the Divisional Round this year and the Bills are one of the major reasons for this. Their defense is stifling and their offense can score with anyone. Meanwhile, the Chiefs do have a stellar offense but their defense is vulnerable to strong teams. The Bills, possessing the best scoring defense and third-best scoring offense match up very well here. 

PICK: Bills +105 to win 

Home/NFL Picks