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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, April 19 (Runs Will Pile Up in Boston)

By Ben Heisler

Boston Red Sox designated hitter JD Martinez has dominated left-handed pitching over his career, and faces Blue Jays SP Yusei Kikuchi at Fenway Park.
Boston Red Sox designated hitter JD Martinez has dominated left-handed pitching over his career, and faces Blue Jays SP Yusei Kikuchi at Fenway Park. / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
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It's only mid-April, but first place is on the line in the AL East as the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series at Fenway Park this evening.

Toronto (6-4) holds a one-game lead over the Red Sox and New York Yankees in the (very) early portion of the season, but the games you win in April are the games you may not have to worry about come September.

Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi takes the mound for the Jays after a disapointing first start of the year against the Yankees. He lasted just 3.1 innings; giving up two runs and only striking out two batters. He'll be opposed by Red Sox opening day starter Nate Eovaldi; who despite striking out 13 in his first two games has given up four home runs over 10 innings pitched.

Here are tonight's odds, run line and total via WynnBET Sportsbook.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Blue Jays +1.5 (-160)
  • Red Sox -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline:

  • Blue Jays +125
  • Red Sox -135

Total:

  • 9 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

So far this season, every American League team is above .500 on unders, but that's not going to stop me from going back to the well tonight.

Let's start with the pitching matchup. Eovaldi's got good swing-and-miss stuff, but like Kikuchi, he has a tendency to get tagged hard; evidenced by four dingers in just two starts so far in April in cold weather. On a night where the wind is blowing straight out at Fenway, that's not good news for either of these two starting pitchers.

While a very small sample, via MLB Statcast, Kikuchi's average exit velocity off the bat is just under 97 mph, giving up a hard hit percentage of 75%. It's part of the reason I love J.D. Martinez to leave the yard tonight and will be including him in our BetSided "Daily Dinger" best home run prop bet picks.

Over his career, Martinez carries an isolated power, or ISO (SLG - AVG) of nearly .050 points higher against left-handers than vs. righties. At home, he's almost unstoppable against left-handed pitchers with an ISO of .342 (league average is .140).

Expect plenty of long balls and lots of runs on the board tonight, despite the chilly April weather.

LEAN: OVER 9 runs (-115)

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