Bo Bichette vs. Vlad Guerrero Jr: Who's a Better Value to Win AL MVP?

Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette.
Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette. / Vaughn Ridley/GettyImages

Opening Day is nearly upon us, and there’s one play that I love as a dark horse to win American League MVP. 

Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette.

Bichette is +3000 at WynnBET Sportsbook to win MVP, while his teammate Vlad Guerrero Jr. is +475 to win the award. So why go Bichette over Vlad?

This is simply a value play, as I broke down on our season predictions video last week. 

Toronto has the highest projected win total in the American League East, which is arguably the best division in baseball, and that could help Bichette or Vlad’s path to winning the award. 

The Blue Jays are projected to win 92.5 games, and if they win the division, there’s a good chance their best offensive player will be at the forefront of the MVP conversation. 

Bichette makes a great play, because with the uncertainty of injuries in baseball, it’s hard for me to find any value on Vlad at just +475, especially since 

Last season, Bichette did it all for the Jays, and he appeared in 159 of 162 regular season games. The shortstop hit .298 with 29 homers, 102 runs batted in and finished 16th in the league with 5.9 win shares. 

Yes, Guerrero Jr. led the American League in homers, runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging percentage last season, but Bichette’s numbers aren’t that far off. He had just nine fewer runs batted in, led the AL in hits and still finished 12th in MVP voting. 

In a vacuum, Guerrero is a better bet to win MVP, but when we’re talking about value, you’re getting Bichette at a much better price. For example, a $100 bet on Guerrero would win $475 if he is awarded MVP, while a $100 bet on Bichette would pay $3000. 

I think both of these players will have a case if the Jays make the playoffs and finish atop the AL, but give me Bichette for the value prior to Opening Day.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record and plays here.