Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for Mountain West Championship
By Reed Wallach
Boise State has made a late season push into the Mountain West Championship game for the second straight season, this time under interim head coach Spencer Danielson. The team is on the road this weekend with hardware on the line against an upstart UNLV team.
These two teams didn't meet in the regular season, but UNLV's offense has taken the Mountain West by storm and will look to outduel the Boise State rush offense that is led by Player of the Year, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. Can the Rebels win its first ever Mountain West title?
Let's break it down below. If you want to bet on college football, I suggest doing it at Caesars Sportsbook, who is matching all new users first bet up to $1,000.
Boise State vs. UNLV Odds, Spread and Total
UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Trends
- UNLV is 10-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Boise State is 6-5-1 ATS this season
- UNLV is 5-0 ATS as an underdog
- Boise State has gone OVER in five of six games on the road this season
Boise State vs. UNLV How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
- Game Time: 3:00 PM EST
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): FOX
- Boise State Record: 7-5
- UNLV Record: 9-3
Boise State vs. UNLV Key Players to Watch
Boise State
Taylen Green: Green shifted from the Week 1 quarterback to a timeshare with Maddux Madsen. However, a season ending injury has opened the door for Green to the lone QB once again. He has led Boise State to back-to-back wins to get back to the MWC title game, including a 13-for-17 performance against Air Force in a must win game for 220 yards, but he did throw two interceptions. He will face an aggressive UNLV defense that is vulnerable when it's not generating turnovers, can he take advantage?
UNLV
Jayden Maiava: The freshman quarterback has been stellar for this 'go-go' UNLV offense, anchoring an offense that is 34th in EPA/Play. The Rebels offense is top 30 in points per drive as Maiava has been dangerous with his arm (completing 67% of his passes on a top 20 yards per pass clip), but has been a threat with his legs, averaging nearly six yards per carry.
Boise State vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick
As noted in this week's fraud rankings, I'm not sold on this Boise State resurgence.
It's commendable that Boise State made the Mountain West title game despite firing its coach two weeks ago, but this defense is going to be exposed against UNLV on the road after beating two banged up teams in a row in Utah State and Air Force.
Boise State's defense has fallen off a cliff after being an elite unit in 2022. The team has allowed 27 or more points to every top 50 offense in terms of EPA/Play outside of UCF (who had 400 total yards but converted only one of five times in the red zone). UNLV is, as mentioned above, 34th in EPA/Play.
Further, UNLV's defensive line can limit Boise State's run game and force Taylen Green into obvious passing situations, which won't work out for the road favorite. Green has completed only 20-of-53 passes on throws of 10-19 yards with zero big time throws to five turnover worthy plays and completed 11-of-39 passes of 20 or more yards, per Pro Football Focus.
Give me the home dog, there's plenty of matchup edges for UNLV on both sides of the ball.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!