Betsided

Braves vs. Cubs Prediction and Odds for Saturday, June 18 (Perfect Day for Pitching in Chicago)

By Ben Heisler

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Kyle Wright has had a terrific season, going 7-3 with a 2.57 ERA.
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Kyle Wright has had a terrific season, going 7-3 with a 2.57 ERA. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The gambling gods have a way of quickly humbling you after you notice a trend.

I wrote on Thursday to start taking overs against the Chicago Cubs after allowing 53 total runs; 13.25 per game over their last four games. The bullpen had been a disaster, but there was also a heat wave with the wind blowing out upwards of 14 mph each day.

Now, it's a perfect 66 degrees and sunny at The Friendly Confines with the wind blowing IN upwards of 11 mph this afternoon. Oh, and of course, the under has also hit in two straight games.

To make matters even more interesting, the Atlanta Braves rolled into Wrigley Field on a 14-game winning streak while the Cubs were in the midst of a 10-game losing streak. Chicago ended up winning Friday afternoon 1-0.

After fading Chicago and betting overs, do we go the opposite direction on Saturday?

Here are today's odds for the Braves and the Cubs listed over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Braves vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Braves -1.5 (+100)
  • Cubs +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline:

  • Braves -172
  • Cubs +157

Total:

  • 7.5 (OVER +100 | UNDER -120)

Braves vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Yesterday's result was "so baseball," as the pitiful Chicago pitching staff tossed an absolute gem against the hottest team in baseball. And now with perfect pitching conditions for Saturday afternoon, I think I'm going to follow that trend and take the under to hit for the third straight game.

However, there is a slight caveat, as I'm backing the under for the first five innings at 4, rather than for the full nine or more innings.

Kyle Wright takes the bump for Atlanta and he's been sensational this season. Through 12 starts, Wright has a strikeout rate of 9.77 per 9, while also inducing a 51% ground ball rate. He keeps the ball in the yard and will have some additional help from the Wrigley Field winds blowing in.

Chicago counters with left-hander Justin Steele, who despite a 1-5 record and 4.33 ERA, has been the victim of one awful game that's messed his numbers up. He's gone back-to-back starts with seven innings, giving up just one earned run against two of the best hitting teams in the National League in the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres.

With Wright and Steele on the mound, I trust both starters to take advantage of the conditions and handle themselves through their opponent's lineup the first few times in the order. Once the bullpens are in, we're likely home free with a winning bet.

LEAN: First Five Innings Under 4 (-125)

Follow all of Ben's betting plays HERE!

Home/MLB Odds