Brewers’ Corbin Burnes Strikeout Prop Has Interesting Value Against Giants

Corbin Burnes has been one of baseball's best pitchers this season.
Corbin Burnes has been one of baseball's best pitchers this season. / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season, and he’s slated to start in a marquee matchup with the National League-leading San Francisco Giants on Monday. 

Burnes put up a historic performance in his Aug. 11 start against the Chicago Cubs, as he struck out 10 consecutive batters on his way to a 15-strikeout game. 

It’s no secret that the Burnes can make hitters look silly at the plate, and WynnBET has his player prop for punch outs in tonight’s game set at 6.5 with the over (-150) as the heavy favorite to the under (+115). 

Despite his historic performance against the Cubs, Burnes actually hasn’t been as dominant over the past few weeks. So is it worth taking the under at +115 odds

I think it is. Burnes has gone over six strikeouts just one time in his last six starts after completing the feat in 14 of his first 16 starts of the year. He was due for some regression at some point, and it’s worth noting he only struck out five Giants in his Aug. 6 start against San Francisco despite pitching seven innings of one-run ball. 

The Giants aren’t among the best teams in baseball in terms of strikeouts on the season, as they average 9.12 per game (good for 23rd in the league), but they are significantly better at home, where they average just 8.32 strikeouts per night. 

In addition, the Giants have actually improved recently, averaging just 5.33 strikeouts per game in their last three contests and they moved from 9.54 K’s per game on July 1 to down to 9.12 two months later. 

Burnes has the stuff to hit the over on this prop, but there’s just too much value in taking the under for me to pass up. I’m riding with the Giants to keep the strikeouts down in a matchup that could potentially be a NLCS preview.  

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