Canadian Open Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview (Which Canadian Should You Bet On?)
This week marks the first time since 2019 that the PGA Tour head north of the border for the Canadian Open!
As a Canadian myself, this tournament holds a special place in my heart, so I'm ecstatic to see it return for the first time since the start of the pandemic.
This year's field is top heavy. It has a few big names, but is short on mid-tier guys, which has resulted in a strange looking oddsboard that has a handful of golfers with odds shorter than 10/1, which is a rare occurrence in golf.
Let's start off by taking a look at the top 10 odds to win this week. Odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Odds to Win the Canadian Open
- Scottie Scheffler +800
- Rory McIlroy +800
- Justin Thomas +900
- Cameron Smith +1200
- Sam Burns +1400
- Shane Lowry +1600
- Matt Fitzpatrick +1800
- Corey Conners +2200
- Tony Finau +2200
- Tyrrell Hatton +2800
How to Handicap the Canadian Open
It's been 12 years since the Canadian Open was last hosted at St. George's Golf & Country Club. That doesn't give us any recent history or ShotLink data to go off of, but we do know a few general things about the course that we should keep in mind this week.
First of all, it's generally not a challenging course off-the-tee, and even if golfers are wayward with their drives, they can make up for it with their approach. Secondly, it's not a long course. Focusing on golfers who rank high in proximity form 175 yards and closer will be key, EXCEPT for on the par 3s. While it is a short course, ironically, the five par 3's all measure over 200 yards.
So, short approaches on Par 4s and 5s, long par 3s, approach play, and short game are what we should be focusing on this week.
5 Key Stats for the 2022 Canadian Open
- Strokes Gained: Approach the Green
- Approach Proximity from 150-175 Yards
- Par 3 Efficiency 200-225 Yards
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
Picks to Win the Canadian Open
Cameron Smith +1200
I was on Cameron Smith last week, and he had a chance on Sunday heading into the final round tied for second, but he collapsed. With that being said, I think there's no golfer in the field who fits St. George's better than Cam Smith. His biggest weakness is his off-the-tee play, but that won't cost him this week.
He's also fantastic in short approach shots, ranking first on Tour in proximity to the hole from 100-125 yards out, 87th in proximity from 125-150 yards out, and then fifth in proximity from 150-175 yards out.
Fantastic short game, top tier approach player. Cam Smith should have a big week in Canada.
Sam Burns +1400
I'm here to respect Sam Burns. He's exploded onto the season over the past 12 months, and deserves to be listed amongst the top golfers in the world. He has three wins already this season, and he's coming off a huge come-from-behind win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The thing I like the most about him this week, is that he's fantastic on short approaches, but also great on long Par 3s. He ranks seventh in Par 3 scoring from 200-225 yards out, while also ranking fifth in approach shots from 100-125 yards out, 25th in 125-150 yards out, and 49th in approach shots from 150-175 yards out.
Adam Hadwin +4000
It'd be disrespectful if I didn't pick a Canadian to win this week. No Canadian has won the event since Pat Fletcher in 1954, so it's time. You could go with Corey Conners at +2200, but I think Hadwin is the much better bet at +4500.
He hasn't been great off the tee this season, but he ranks 30th in strokes gained: approach-the-green, 18th in strokes gained: around-the-green, and 66th in strokes gained: putting. He's coming off a T18 at the Memorial, so he's trending in the right direction.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.