CBB Underdog of the Day (Michigan State Undervalued on the Road)
By Reed Wallach
Looking for an underdog to back? Maybe a bigger payout in the highly volatile sport of college basketball? Well, let's take a peek at the Big Ten where there's a potential live dog on the road on Tuesday night.
Michigan State is in a bit of a tailspin, but head to Iowa City to face a good, but maybe not so great Iowa team coming off their biggest win of the season against Ohio State. Is this a good buy low opportunity on Tom Izzo's team? The Spartans are six-point underdogs at WynnBET Sportsbook with a total of 154 and sit as +225 dogs on the moneyline.
Michigan State vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick
From this morning's game preview, focusing on the total of this game:
It's hard to find a better team at home than Iowa since McCaffery took over in 2010. The team is 110-73-4 against the spread (ATS) in Iowa City in that time period, the best mark of power conference teams over the last decade plus.
However, this line feels like a bit of an overreaction after closing as a 5.5-point underdog at Ohio State over the weekend. While Michigan State's offense may be a bit overvalued, ShotQuality rates the Spartans offense as 66th in the country and believes their record is more like a 13-13 team rather than their actual record of 18-8, the offense is set up for some success against a porous Iowa defense.
The Hawkeyes are terrible on the defensive glass, bottom 100 nationally, and foul at an alarming rate in conference play. The Spartans have a physical front court with Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham that draw fouls at a high rate and as a team hit 80% of their free throws.
While keeping in mind that McCaffery is fantastic at home, I believe the Hawkeyes are getting too much respect while there's a mass exodus from Michigan State. I have this line closer to -4 as the Hawkeyes may struggle to get enough separation from the Spartans over the course of 40 minutes.
Iowa is 99th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric and can be caught sleeping against a desperate Michigan State team. I like Sparty to hang around and cover and have a chance to cash as +225 underdogs.
PICK: Michigan +6, .5U Michigan State ML+225