Celtics vs. Heat Game 7 Prediction and Odds (Don't Overreact To Low Total)

Jimmy Butler saved the Miami Heat’s season in Game 6, putting up 47 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists. The Celtics now have to go back on the road and win a Game 7 to get to the NBA Finals, which won’t be easy to do. 

With Jimmy Butler’s knees looking healthy, Max Strus and Kyle Lowry becoming credible shooters again and the Heat’s defense holding up, Miami once again looks like a threat to make the Finals. 

Will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart finally get over the hump?

Here are the odds for the matchup via WynnBET.

Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Spread: 

• Celtics: -2.5 (-108)
• Heat: +2.5 (-108)

Moneyline:

• Celtics: -140
• Heat: +115

Total:

• 197.5 (Over: -108/Under: -108)

Celtics vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

This is the third time the Celtics have been up 3-2 in a conference finals in the last 10 years. Each time, the series has gone seven games and each time the Celtics lost. While Vegas gives the Celtics the advantage in this one – history says this isn’t a good spot to be in. 

The winner of Game 7 will be decided by the winner of the third quarter. We’ve seen over this entire postseason that the third quarter run is a demoralizing effort by one team. This series has been physical and unpredictable, so I’d rather turn my attention to the total in this one. 

The UNDER has hit in four of the six games this series. Furthermore, Game 7 UNDERS (dating back to 2003) are cashing in at a 61% rate. The three-point shooting in this series has been inconsistent on both sides, the physicality has been at a season high, and these teams have the tools to make offense hard. 

While this is a low total to start, asking for both team to score close to 100 points again with everything on the line seems a bit much for me. I’m not going to overreact to the low number and take the UNDER.

PICK: UNDER 197.5 (-108)

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.