Celtics vs. Heat Prediction and Odds for Game 1 (Back Celtics as Slight Underdogs)
By Peter Dewey
Whoever said “defense wins championships” was on to something, as the four remaining teams in the NBA playoffs all finished with a top seven defensive rating in the regular season.
The Boston Celtics (No. 1) and Miami Heat (No. 4) will face off in the Eastern Conference Finals, with Game 1 taking place on Tuesday night. It’s a bit of a quick turnaround for Boston, who won Game 7 against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday afternoon.
Miami may be the No. 1 seed in the East, but the Celtics are heavily favored in this series and to win the NBA title in the latest odds at WynnBET.
The Celtics got a positive update on guard Marcus Smart, who left the arena Sunday in a walking boot.
Smart underwent an MRI today on that right foot and the imaging returned clean, sources tell ESPN. There’s hope he’ll be ready for Game 1 and Celtics will see how it feels on Tuesday in Miami. https://t.co/pAruJK3cbN
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) May 16, 2022
Celtics head coach Ime Udoka also revealed that defensive anchor Robert Williams should be good to go to match up with Bam Adebayo in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
During his availability, Ime Udoka said Marcus Smart is questionable for Game 1 with a midfoot sprain he suffered during Game 7, & that Robert Williams won't have any restrictions in Game 1. Udoka said before Game 7 Williams was available but he didn't want to shift his rotation.
— Tim Bontemps (@TimBontemps) May 16, 2022
Despite the short rest, can Boston pull off the Game 1 upset?
Here are the odds via WynnBET:
Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Celtics +1.5 (-108)
- Heat -1.5 (-108)
Moneyline:
- Celtics: +105
- Heat: -125
Total:
- 204 (Over -108/Under -108)
Celtics vs. Heat Prediction and Pick
There are some people that will subscribe to the “letdown game” after a Game 7 victory, but this Boston team is just different.
The Celtics are on a wild run since late January, and they didn’t have to exert too much effort in a pretty easy win over the Bucks on Sunday.
The Boston Celtics are now 34-9 since January 29th.
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) May 16, 2022
Five of those nine losses are by 3 points or less.
The Celtics have been playing a man short in their rotation with Williams out, so his return should be a major boost for the team going forward.
On the other side, Miami has yet to lose a home game in the playoffs, but it has shown it is vulnerable to strong interior defense (see Games 3 and 4 against the Philadelphia 76ers).
The Heat are about as deep as a team comes, but I like Boston’s top two players a lot better than a Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo duo.
This is going to be a defensive rock fight that likely comes down to the role players, hence the short spread. Boston’s guys have stepped up continuously in this postseason run, while Butler has been the straw that stirs the drink for Miami.
After seeing the Celtics give Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant Jrue Holiday and at times Giannis Antetokounmpo trouble, I think Miami may have a tough time scoring in this series.
I’ll take Boston with the points in what should be a great Game 1.
Lean: Celtics +1.5 (-108)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.