College Basketball Best Bets for Today, February 25th

Pretty much a breakeven Thursday with a pair of close losses on Temple and Illinois, but we crushed the Bet & Breakfast pick on Murray State who won by about a million.

Now we move to a relatively quiet Friday slate, but I made two bets on the card, one side and one total. If I add anymore plays ahead for Friday (unlikely), they'll be up on my betstamp, but I will be betting a few openers for Saturday on Friday night there so check those out there.

As always, odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Column Record: 69-66-3 (-0.55 Units)

Penn State (-1.5) vs. Northwestern

Penn State has quietly amassed one of the best home/road splits in the entire country, ranked inside the top 10 per Haslemetrics this season. The Nittany Lions are a perfect 7-0 against the spread (ATS) at home since the start of January. The team has beaten Indiana, Iowa and Michigan State in that time span.

Now, they are laying a short number against Northwestern, who is going to struggle to find clean looks against a disciplined Penn State defense. The Wildcats are the worst Big Ten team in terms of two point percentage and the Nittany Lions have the best 2P% D in league play.

Penn State is going to need to protect the ball against a Northwestern defense that generates turnovers at the second highest clip in the conference, but I trust the rebounding and interior defense of the home team to get this job done and win by at least a bucket.

PICK: Penn State -1.5

St. Louis vs. Richmond OVER 142.5

From this morning's full game preview:

One month ago when these two met, the total closed 143.5 and I'm not sure it should drop a point this time around. Both teams play relatively fast and protect the ball better than most in the conference so I expect both offenses to do what they want here. Since the beginning of February, both O's are inside the top 75 nationally per barttorvik.com in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Further, the Bilks are 90th in defensive efficiency in that time and Richmond is 176th in that time period. Each defense is the weak point of the roster so I'll lean on points being scored at a healthy clip.

St. Louis is the best A-10 team in generating second chances but they also foul at a concerning clip, allowing the third highest free throw rate in the conference. If they find themselves in foul trouble, Richmond has the ability to get inside and get to the charity stripe where they shoot over 75%.

LEAN: OVER 142.5, play to 143.5

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!