College Basketball Best Bets for Today, February 28th
By Reed Wallach
The last 100-plus Saturday slate didn't go my way, going 5-6 for a slight loss. A few plays missed by a couple of points and some that I ended up staying off of cashed as winners. So it goes with massive slates.
Anyway, onto a short but intriguing Monday slate. We are slightly down on the year now after a shaky last week, let's round into form ahead of March. Here are three plays from me.
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook
Column Record: 75-73-3 (-1.85 Units)
North Carolina (-7.5) vs. Syracuse
I bet this at open at -7, but I see value on this through -8.5.
Syracuse's zone defense has been gashed at times this season and Armando Bacot provides enough rebounding prowess to overwhelm the opposite. The Orange are bottom 20 nationally in defensive rebounding rate while Bacot is 37th in the country in offensive rebounding rate.
Jim Boeheim's team is an elite 3-point shooting team, but I do trust the length and speed of the Tar Heels to challenge them and make it one-and-done given UNC's top five defensive rebounding unit nationally.
The hosts have beaten ACC foes that are outside the KenPom's top 75 by over 14 points per game and boast a top 10 home court rating per Haslemetrics. There's something special at the Dean Dome for the Heels, who have been able to win with margin at home against inferior competition.
Not to mention, Syracuse is bottom 20 in away rating as the team struggles to travel and matchup very poorly with the Tar Heels.
There is some concern with UNC possibly looking ahead to a rematch against Duke this season, but the Heels can't afford a loss as they sit on the 12 line of most projected brackets and I see this shaping up for a blowout with the size and athleticism advantage.
PICK: North Carolina -7.5, play to -8.5
Wyoming (+2) vs. San Diego State
Our Cowboys are home underdogs again with a ton of motivation and the two best players on the floor in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldanaldo.
San Diego State may have the best defense in the country according to KenPom, but Wyoming's offense can give the defense some trouble with Ike down low. Feeding off the rocking home crowd in Larrime, I believe Ike can handle double teams and draw a ton of fouls and also find shooters on the outside.
The Pokes are 8-2 as an underdog this season and have the offensive prowess to outpace a SDSU team that has less to play for (Wyoming is still in the hunt for a MWC regular season title) and the worst unit on the floor, their offense. The 'Tecs are struggle to score inside and are poor at protecting the ball, I believe Wyoming's offense can push the score out of reach for the visitors porous offense.
PICK: Wyoming +2, play to +1
Baylor (-125) vs. Texas
It's a tough spot for Baylor after an emotional win over Kansas and a quick turnaround, but I do believe they are going to take care of a Texas team that will struggle with the Bears smash mouth basketball.
Baylor is a top 10 offensive rebounding team and should shut off the interior for Texas.
In the first meeting, an 80-63 victory for the Bears, the Longhorns shot 31% on two-point tries and also sent Baylor to the line 27 times. Overall, the visitors do a fine job of shutting off the interior for opponents while the Longhorns have not been able to find consistent offense all season.
Baylor is elite at finishing around the rim, top five in the country per Haslemetrics, and I trust their ball handlers to win the one-on-one battles and get inside as well as generate second chance opportunities.
Baylor is the better team and I simply haven't seen enough from Texas to play them here. They had to rally late to win on the road against a poor West Virginia team over the weekend and I don't think they have an advantage anywhere on the floor. Baylor can win both inside and out and think they do enough to get a victory here.
LEAN: Baylor ML -125
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!