Brick by brick, we're starting to see the board better and keying in on some situational spots that are yielding value. With conference play in full swing, it's sometimes easier to follow the pattern of teams over the course of the week.
Again, college basketball is a long season with a ton of variance. Those days happen over the course of the winter and I'll keep sticking to my process. No need to change it up.
All odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
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Column Record: 11-17-2 (-7.6 Units)
Coastal Carolina (+3) vs. Appalachian State
Maybe I'm taking the bait, but I make Coastal a small favorite in this game.
This Coastal offense can dictate the game on the glass and have the interior defense to give Appalachian State fits. The Mountaineers get blocked on more than 10% of their shots on offense and the Chanticleers are 64th in block rate this season.
Neither team is strong from the free throw line, and App State may be due to get hot from beyond the arc (they shoot below 30% from deep on the 61st highest volume), but I'm going to side with the short road underdog.
These two played an overtime game in the Sun Belt tournament last year and I expect another close one here.
PICK: Coastal Carolina +3
Oklahoma State (+7.5) at Texas Tech
It's not going to be pretty -- it rarely is when these two take the floor -- but this feels like the right time to get off the Texas Tech train.
The Red Raiders have won two straight against the class of the Big 12 at home against Kansas and then on the road against Baylor. Now they get a similar structed roster in Oklahoma State who likes to force turnovers and play inside.
While Texas Tech is the better team, I can see a bit of a letdown spot in a game with a low total. This is a team I like to back as an underdog but not as a favorite so I'll take the points in a physical Big 12 matchup in a game I'm sure will be tight late.
PICK: Oklahoma State +7.5
San Francisco (-9.5) vs. Loyola Marymount
The Dons are one of the darlings of the mid-majors this sesason and they have revenge on their mind after losing three straight to the Lions last season.
The team loaded up with the likes of 6'9" Yauhen Massalski, who has shored up a ton of USF's interior defensive woes last season. The Dons are top 60 on both sides of the ball and Loyola Marymount is coming off an extended COVID-19 pause that has kept the them on the sidelines since December 21st.
With motivation high and an elite mid-major on one side, I believe we see a maximum effort from San Francisco who has only lost to two strong opponents in Grand Canyon and Loyola-Chicago on neutral floors this season.
PICK: San Francisco -9.5