College Basketball Best Bets for Today, Feb. 16 (Trust Texas Tech, Miami and More)

Slight losing night on Tuesday with the moneyline shot on Cincinnati came up short, pushing us closer to .500 on the season. Cincy came up short and Providence just missed a cover, but we did cash an easy ACC over with Florida State and Clemson while also squeaking out Texas in overtime.

Back at it with Wednesday's slate which has plenty of action. I'm keying in on two close spreads while also parlaying a pair of Big Ten road favorites and a shot on a Big East underdog. If I add any other plays they will be posted on my betstamp in real time.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Column Record: 62-57-3 (+2.2 Units)

Miami (-2) vs. Louisville

The Hurricanes have plenty to play for in hopes of locking up an NCAA Tournament berth and travel to face a Louisville squad that is just trying to play out the season.

After firing coach Chris Mack earlier this season, the Cardinals don't appear interested in playing hard. The team's leading scorer, Malik Williams, was suspended for two games in ACC play and hardly played in the team's loss to Notre Dame last week. Further, leading rebounder Samuel Williamson missed the game against the Irish which was up to interim head coach Mike Pegues. Yikes.

I make Miami a 3.5 point road favorite before factoring in the motivation discrepancy of each team, so I'm interested in playing the Hurricanes favored by a bucket. The team is posting the 40th highest effective field goal percentage and are generating the highest turnover percentage in ACC play, but also have a ton to play for and can't afford to lose to the 11-13 Cards.

PICK: Miami -2

Parlay: Illinois/Purdue ML (+120)

I'm backing the two best teams in the Big Ten on the road to hold serve.

Rutgers has been magical at home this season, 12-2 straight up this season, and have won three straight against ranked foes over the last week and a half. However, I see them running into a buzzsaw Illinois team that is well balanced -- top 25 on both sides of the ball per KenPom's efficiency metric -- and has a big man in Kofi Cockburn can dominate at the rim.

I'm not confident in the team covering a two possession spread, but think they are able to knock the surging Scarlett Knights off on the road due to their ability to hit the 3-point shot and also shut down Rutgers emerging offense with one of the lowest 3-point rates allowed and interior defense.

I'll pair them with Purdue, who is in line for a bounce back effort after a shaky set of games this past weekend. The team followed up a double digit victory over Illinois at home with a blowout loss at Michigan and an underwhelming performance at home against Maryland.

However, I see the Boilermakers having too much offensive firepower for Northwestern on the road. The team doesn't have a defensive playmaker to stay in front of Jaden Ivey nor keep Zach Edey off the glass. I expect a big effort after a lackluster one on Sunday that saw the Boilermakers need a last minute bucket to avoid an outright loss as a 16-point favorite.

I'm not confident in backing either team to cover, but think they are likely to win so I'll grab the + money payout.

PICK: Illinois/Purdue +120

Seton Hall (+5.5) vs. UConn

From this morning's game preview:

Both teams are top 25 in limiting opponents two-point field goal percentage and also do a great job of using their length to run teams off the three-point line. This should be a physical matchup that will come down to who can win on the offensive glass and get second chances at the rim, there's not much separating the two.

The two Big East foes are near the bottom 100 in two-point offense, but UConn has the edge in the three-point shooting department. With that in mind, Seton Hall is better at defending the three, and have seen their numbers trending upwards in conference play while the Huskies have been around the same mark all season.

These two went to overtime last month with Seton Hall squeaking out a 90-87 victory, and Connecticut has had trouble covering of late, failing to do so in five of their last six. While many will be backing the revenge angle, I think we get another tight one on Wednesday night.

I make UConn closer to 3-point favorites and can't back them given their recent struggles.

PICK: Seton Hall +5.5

Texas Tech (-2) vs. Baylor

Another game I previewed earlier today on BetSided, which you can read in full here, but a snippet of the handicap:

While Baylor is the defending National Champions and can match Texas Tech on the defensive side, the team is extremely banged up, now down to about a seven man rotation. Jonathan Tchamwa suffered a season ending knee injury over the weekend, putting Scott Drew down his best rebounder, and the team still waits for guard LJ Cryer to come back from injury...

Texas Tech does most of their work inside, generating the second most points in Big 12 play from two-point range while the Bears are allowing the second highest. Now they are down one of their key big man, which can lead to a ton of issues against the Tech offense. The Red Raiders are 27th in near proximity field goal percentage, Baylor is 225th on the defensive side and playing short handed. This will be problematic come Wednesday.

I like Tech to pull away late. The home cooking is enough to offset the revenge spot.

PICK: Texas Tech -2

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!