Rough 0-2 Monday for me with two games that just missed cashing, but we move on to a loaded Tuesday slate that has a ton of high major action.
Let's try and get bounce back with a nice mix of games across the board. Here are four plays I have for Tuesday's slate, but if I add anymore you can find them in real time on my betstamp here.
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Column Record: 60-54-3 for +2.9 units.
Cincinnati (+3) vs. Memphis
My favorite spot on the board is in the AAC where I'll back Cincinnati catching three points with a sprinkle on the moneyline at +125. From this morning's game preview:
Cincy has the second best turnover rate in conference play which is massive against Memphis' handsy defense that is forcing turnovers at the third highest rate in league games this season. If the home team is able to limit Memphis' attack from the perimeter and transition (allowing the 54th lowest potential points on breakaway steals per Haslemetrics), they can stay within this spread of over a bucket.
Both teams struggle to shoot free throws, each clock in at 67%. In a game that should be tight late, neither team can pull away and I expect this one to go down to the wire. Even if Memphis has turned a corner this season, I can't make them road favorites against a Cincy team that played them tough and covered on the road last month.
Memphis has been overvalued in the betting market all season, going 7-13 against the spread (ATS) and I like fading them after beating the class of the conference Houston on the road.
PICK: Cincinnati +3, .5U on ML +125
Florida State vs. Clemson OVER 137
I would hold off on this number until it drops down to 136, but I believe that we are set to see some points from both teams on Tuesday night given their defensive struggles in ACC play.
Both sides allow a ton of three's, Clemson is 12th in opponent three-point rate in ACC and Florida State is 13th, and neither side is defending it particularly well as opponents are hitting on more than 37% of them.
Considering neither team can defend the perimeter and both teams are fouling at a higher rate in ACC play, we can see points in bunches both from beyond the arc and at the free throw line during this game. The Tigers are the more methodical offense, but playing in Tallahassee I expect we see the Noles try and run to push the tempo, their more preferred style of play, leading me to the over. The team is 18th in potential points per breakaway steals in the country.
These two played on February 2nd, going over the closing total of 137.5 with Clemson winning at home 75-69. I believe we are in line for another game that each team pushes 70 points with FSU dictating the pace.
PICK: Wait for 136, play anything below 137
Texas (-120) vs. Oklahoma
Once again, we find ourselves on the Longhorns, who should have a nice bounce back effort after struggling against a physical Baylor team over the weekend.
While the Longhorns continue to look for consistency, they won't be attacked down low, which has led to issues against the likes of Seton Hall and the aforementioned Baylor Bears this past weekend. OU plays a more spread out brand of basketball with a top 100 three-point rate and is middle of the pack in Big 12 play in offensive rebounding rate.
Further, the Sooners are bottom 20 in the country in turnover percentage, something Texas thrives out, generating loose balls at a top 10 rate in the country. The Sooners offensive construction should allow Chris Beard to scheme up a strong defensive game plan like he did last month in Austin when the Longhorns won 66-52.
Oklahoma stood tall against Kansas on the road over the weekend, but UT is a much better defense and should shut down Tanner Groves and the Sooners offense enough to get a road victory.
PICK: Texas ML -120, play to -125
Providence (+4.5) vs. Villanova
Many won't take the Friars seriously despite a 21-2 record. The team has the highest luck metric dating back to 2008, per KenPom, so I see the cause for concern, but maybe this team is at the very least good?
They are full of veterans and have had success against Jay Wright's Villanova teams in the past, winning three times since 2018. The pace is going to be slow with each team in the bottom 100 in adjusted tempo, so catching this many points is even more enticing.
Ed Cooley's bunch knows how to compete with Nova and is 7-1 as an underdog this season. While I'm not sure if this team is elite just yet, they are good enough to hang with a slightly overrated Villanova team and keep it within two buckets in a game with Big East regular season title implications.
You can check out more on this game in this morning's game preview, but I'm siding with the home dog once again.
PICK: Providence +4.5
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!