College Football Betting Trends for Week 11: Trust Alabama or Clemson Off a Loss?

Oct 15, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban reacts during
Oct 15, 2022; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban reacts during / Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

College football Week 11 is here and for some teams, they are shockingly out of the CFP race early.

Alabama and Clemson suffered crushing losses on the road last week and now are in the famous "bounceback" spot. But how have they fared under head coaches Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney in this situation?

Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns look to play spoiler for TCU's CFP bid. Is there any angle to play on Saturday night in Austin?

Lastly, we look at totals north of 75 as there are quite a few on the board this week, highlighted by North Carolina vs. Wake Forest.

Here are some notable Week 11 trends:

Be Careful Blindly Betting Nick Saban or Dabo Swinney Off Loss

Saban is the best college football coach of this generation and typically lifts the Crimson Tide off the mat after a loss. He's 14-6 straight up off a loss and 13-1 since 2010, but oddsmakers are aware of this and there is an apparent premium to backing the Tide off of a loss. Alabama is 8-12 against the spread (ATS) since Saban arrived in 2007 and that mark is 4-7 when they are double-digit favorites.

Alabama is laying 11 points in Oxford against Ole Miss this weekend. It's worth mentioning that this is the first time in several years that the Crimson Tide are drawing dead for a CFP berth during the season. There could be some letdown factor here, but the team is still laying double digits on the road.

Get an in depth break down for this one with The Early Reed below and our game preview!

Meanwhile, Clemson's bubble was burst in South Bend, Indiana last weekend, losing 35-17 to Notre Dame. While Clemson's ATS mark under Swinney is better, it's far from a lock to trust the team off of a loss. Clemson is 15-14-1 ATS off of a loss since Swinney took over.

Further, Clemson is 2-4 ATS in those games when favored by a touchdown or less. The Tigers are -7 against Louisville at home this weekend.

Trust Texas in First Half vs. TCU

Steve Sarkisian is one of the best play callers in the country, and it has shown in the Longhorns games this season. The team has thrived in the first half of games, scoring the fifth most points per game in the country during the first 30 minutes. With that in mind, Texas has covered six of nine games in the first half.

However, things change in the second half, outside of the scripted portion of the game. Texas blew a second-half lead on the road to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and nearly squandered a three-touchdown lead to Kansas State last week. The team drops to 66th in second-half scoring.

Now, they face a TCU team that has made its mark by rallying in the second half. The team is tied for the fourth most points per game in the second half this season and is 6-1-1 ATS in the second half of games.

Check out more on this trend in our TCU vs. Texas game preview

How to Bet High Totals

We have a few games that are in the mid-70s, which may scare some off from going over, but historically that has been the way to go.

73 is the most common number of final scores in the 70's, hitting above 1.2% of the time. While totals of 70 or above are 30-32 to the OVER over the last 10 seasons, when you go through the key number of 73, the over becomes profitable, albeit on a small sample.

Totals of 73.5 or above are 16-14 since the 2013-2014 season, per BetLabs.

This weekend, North Carolina vs. Wake Forest is lined at 77.5 and Arizona vs. UCLA has a lofty total of 76.5. If you continue raising the total, you get more profitable. Games with a total of 75 or above are 11-7 in that same time span.

While it may look daunting, don't be afraid of going over on high totals.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.