College Football Upset Picks for Week 3: Is Tennessee in Danger of Losing in 'The Swamp?'

Joe Milton leads Tennessee into Gainesville to face Florida, but is the team on upset alert?
Florida Gators running back Trevor Etienne (7) and Florida Gators offensive lineman Austin Barber
Florida Gators running back Trevor Etienne (7) and Florida Gators offensive lineman Austin Barber / Matt Pendleton / USA TODAY NETWORK

After a chaotic Week 2 with a ton of marquee matchups, we get a bit of a breather in terms of elite matchups ahead of another in Week 4.

Week 3 may not jump off the page as a loaded slate of college football games, but some of the most recognizable and highly ranked teams are set to be on upset alert due to specific matchups.

Tennessee hasn't been tested yet, and with some new players in key positions, can be upset in a rivalry game on the road against Florida to start SEC play.

Meanwhile, another SEC team, Ole Miss, could be caught looking ahead to a big matchup against Alabama in Week 4, and better keep its eye on Week 3.

Lastly, is Oklahoma State's indecision at quarterback going to cost them against a formidable Group of Five foe in South Alabama?

Here are this week's upset picks:

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College Football Upset Picks for Week 3

  • South Alabama vs. Oklahoma State
  • Florida vs. Tennessee
  • Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss

South Alabama vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Our own Josh Yourish breaks down why he likes South Alabama to not only cover the touchdown spread, but to win outright. Here's a snippet, but you can read the full preview here:

However, Gundy refuses to choose from his three possible starters. Alan Bowman has attempted 40 passes through two games, Garrett Rangel has attempted 24 and Gunnar Gundy, 16. That’s a real three-way split and is likely why they’re 96th in yards per play. There are plenty of overused cliches about having too many quarterbacks, but they’re cliches because they’re kind of true. 

I agree with Yourish. The Pokes haven't circled one player to take over as QB1, but it hasn't mattered yet as Arizona State couldn't stay out of its own way in Week 2 and Central Arkansas lacked the playmakers to really put a scare into them.

South Alabama returns its starting quarterback from last season, running back and top receiver. With some familiar faces to a team that was a game away from the Sun Belt title game, I believe this is the team that could put some scoreboard pressure on Oklahoma State and make Gundy decide who is his quarterback for the time being.

However, in the midst of a game against a veteran defense, this can put the home team in some danger. I'll back the veteran G5 visitors to stun Oklahoma State at home.

PICK: South Alabama +215

Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

While Tennessee enters with a ranking next to its name, this team is being rated based on last season's success. Joe Milton is still a concern at quarterback. The Vols signal caller hasn't beaten up on the likes of Virginia and Austin Peay like Josh Heupel would have hoped, the team is 97th in EPA/Pass through two games.

Florida's offense has its fair share of concerns with Graham Mertz leading the way, this feels like a line based around the perception of the two teams and not reality. UF had to play its opener in one of the most difficult places to play, Utah's Rice-Eccles Stadium, and the defense kept the offense in the game.

Now, at home, I believe Florida can keep this within a touchdown and possibly win the game outright. Through two games (a small sample size) Florida is 27th in net yards per play while Tennessee is 28th.

PICK: Florida +205

Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Ole Miss enters this game with at on of injury questions. The team hasn't had its star transfer wide receiver Zhakari Franklin available yet this season and both standout running back Quinshon Judkins and wide receiver Tre Harris haven't practiced yet this week ahead of the Georgia Tech game.

The team will look to skate by a rejuvenated Georgia Tech offense that has former Georgia assistant Buster Faulkner ahead of the Rebels game against Alabama next week.

However, I believe the Yellow Jackets are live in this game. The team put up plenty of points against Louisville and looked the part against South Carolina State. Overall, this team is top 30 in EPA/Pass and success rate so far this season.

The Rebels struggled to slow down a Tulane offense in the first half that was playing its back up quarterback, and I'm not sure given the team's injuries on offense that its capable of pulling away from Georgia Tech.

I think this game is being lined far too wide.

PICK: Georgia Tech +650

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!