College Football Upset Picks for Week 7: Watch Out for UCLA as Road Underdogs Against Oregon State

There were plenty of shockers in Week 6 of the college football season, including Louisville taking down Notre Dame and Oklahoma upsetting Texas.

With a new week and fresh matchups, can we catch any more live underdogs as conference play picks up across the country? UCLA may have the best defense in the PAC-12 this season, can it slow down Oregon State's potent rushing attack?

Are there also edges for Miami against undefeated North Carolina on the road? Many will write off the Hurricanes after a disheartening last-second loss to Georgia Tech, but is it actually giving bettors enhanced odds on the underdog?

We'll dive into three of my favorite upset picks below, but don't miss out on betting on those underdogs with some free bets! If you sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook below, you can bet on any college football game for $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly!

Miami vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

While it's fair to question how Miami will respond to the late-game disaster in Week 6, this matchup sets up nicely for the Hurricanes, who may be getting downgraded too far for the team's outcome last week.

The Hurricane's defense has been nailing this season under first-year defensive coordinator Lance Guidry, posting a top 15 success rate and EPA/Play according to gameonpaper.com so far this season with a stifling defensive line that is second in Pro Football Focus' rush defense grade.

That's an issue for North Carolina, which is 118th run blocking so far this season. The Tar Heels have put a lot on Maye's plate so far this season as the team has struggled to establish a strong ground game.

This will be the best defense that UNC will face this season and I believe that last week's end game is giving us an extra half-point or so on the Hurricanes.

North Carolina's defense has been better than last year but is still middling at best, tied for 54th in overall success rate. Miami's offense has been playing at an equal, if not better, mark than UNC's highly regarded offense, 21st in EPA/Play this season.

There's some variance in this one. Miami could fold amidst the chaotic end to last week's game, but also is the better team in my power ratings and North Carolina lacks a home-field advantage that makes me question fading the home team. I'll go for some high-end outcomes and take the 'Canes to win.

PICK: Miami +150

UCLA vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick

Get ready for Week 7 with our picks against the spread (ATS) for every Top 25 matchup

This should be an interesting chess match for both teams as Moore has had his fair share of struggles against sturdy competition in his last two games, including a road game at Utah. He will be back on the road in a hostile environment, but I believe this Oregon State defense can give the freshman some opportunities to showcase his arm talent.

The Beavers' defense has been sturdy this season, but against a potent passing attack was gashed. The team allowed 38 points to Washington State on the road and couldn't stop Cal with a true freshman quarterback making his first start last week, allowing 40 points in the process.

Oregon State is 89th in passing success rate and is allowing more than five yards per play this season. Further, something to keep an eye on is Oregon State's poor tackling. The team is 112th in Pro Football Focus' tackling grade and will be facing one of the most talented offenses in the country with an ace playcaller in Chip Kelly. The Bruins are scoring touchdowns on just 40% of red zone possessions, a number that is due to regress to the mean from a number that is outside the top 100 this season.

Meanwhile, the UCLA defense has been on a tear this season. The team is second in PFF's pass rush grade and just overwhelmed the same Washington State that carved up Oregon State at home. The Bruins, as mentioned above, are allowing less than two yards per carry and are tops in yards per play allowed.

This will be a tricky environment for the Bruins to enter given its QB struggles, but I also have questions for the Beavers offense if the team isn't picking up north of five yards per carry or scoring touchdowns on 90% of red zone possessions like the team has done to date.

If Uiagalelei is forced into obvious passing situations, I don't trust him as he is completing only 51% of his throws of 10 or more yards this season. It's evident that head coach Jonathan Smith doesn't trust him all that much, starting to ease in backup Aidan Chiles, giving him full drives at a time over the past few games.

I don't trust Oregon State to win with margin in this game with the state of UCLA's defense and the upside this offense possesses.

PICK: UCLA +154

San Jose State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick

New Mexico has been on this list before, and if it continues to be priced like this will continue to be on the list.

The New Mexico offense has been potent this season, top 25 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush against a handful of decent defenses that includes Wyoming and Texas A&M. San Jose State's defense is not good whatsoever, especially against the run, 125th in EPA/Rush.

While San Jose State was close to knocking off Boise State as a road underdog last week, that was a fraudulent box score that is giving us some line value on the Lobos, who are coming off of a bye. The Spartans forced three turnovers early in the game but were outgained by nearly one yard per play against the Broncos in a game that it lost by eight points.

San Jose State has passed at a top 10 percentage this season, the weak point of the Lobos defense, but it hasn't been all that effective. The Spartans are 105th in yards per pass attempt and I don't believe is built to take advantage.

I think the Lobos can score often on this SJSU defense that is outside the top 100 yards per play and total sacks and be live for an upset after a bye week.

PICK: New Mexico +250

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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