College Football Week 2 Upset Picks (Is Temple's Resurgence Legit?)

Which underdogs are live for an upset in Week 2?

Nov 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Temple Owls quarterback E.J. Warner (13) passes the
Nov 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Temple Owls quarterback E.J. Warner (13) passes the / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

One week is in the books on the college football season and we now have one data point to go off of, but is that still underrating the difference between two teams?

There's more variance in college football than ever and it's big for us sports bettors to target some of the team's that figure to be live to pull an upset at long odds due to matchup advantages or overrated teams getting too much of a boost in the market.

Here are three underdogs I believe can outperform its underdog price tag on Saturday's Week 2 slate:

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College Football Week 2 Upset Picks

  • SMU vs. Oklahoma
  • Temple vs. Rutgers
  • Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State

Don't miss out on any of our picks against the spread for EVERY Top 25 game in Week 2!

SMU vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

From my early week betting preview, I am targeting SMU as one of my favorite bets of the Week 2 slate.

This is far too much respect for the Sooners, who faced arguably the worst team in the FBS this season, and now will face a Mustangs offense that can match the Sooners throughout the game behind the look of new starting quarterback Preston Stone.

Stone is the long awaited leader of the SMU offense, who waited behind now Wisconsin signal caller Tanner Mordecai, and showed his upside against Louisiana Tech in Week 1, posting a 0.27 EPA/Pass, 75th percentile when compared to all games in 20222.

Oklahoma went 3-5 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of three or more last season as the team fell short of prior ratings from the Lincoln Riley era teams. While the team is sure to take a step forward in the second year of Brent Venables, I'm not trusting the Sooners to slow down SMU's air-raid offense under also a second year coach in Rhett Lashlee with a talented quarterback.

I expect fireworks in this one, and while Oklahoma's defense may look improved in 2023 off a one-game sample size, I will pay to see it. This was a roster that was 92n in EPA/Play and this is a SMU offense with a ton of speed that can rip off chunk plays. I don't trust Oklahoma to close out a big lead and cover a spread of this magnitude.

With a high total, there will be plenty of possessions and the opportunity for Stone to lead SMU over Oklahoma. I get why OU has a rating that is far superior to SMU, but that hasn't been put onto the field just yet. This is a big number on a team that may have a better offense.

PICK: SMU +15.5, +500 ML

Temple vs. Rutgers Prediction and Pick

Rutgers closed about a six-point home favorite against Northwestern and looked far better than that, smashing the Wildcats 24-7. However, Temple is far more complete than Rutgers' Big Ten opener opponent. The Owls will have a quarterback edge with second year quarterback E.J. Warner continuing to grow into his role. After last season's Temple defense impressed, ranking top 10 in sacks and top 40 in havoc rate, the hope is that Warner can open up the team's offense.

The Scarlett Knights will hope that fellow second year QB Gavin Wimsatt is in line for a leap with a full offseason, but I can't look past last year's concerning numbers and trust him to cover a two possession spread. He completed 44% of his passes on 145 attempts with five touchdowns to seven interceptions. Against a formidable Temple defense, he can be vulnerable to make a mistake.

Rutgers defense averaged less than four yards per play, but thrived on putting Northwestern behind the sticks, generating eight total tackles for loss in the win. However, Temple's offensive line is far better, top 10 in sacks allowed last season, and return four starters.

The total is low, and the pace should be slow, all the makings for a live dog.

PICK: Temple +9, +275 ML

Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma State didn't ease any concerns about the team in a Week 1 win against Central Arkansas, 27-13. Garrett Rangel drew the start for the Cowboys as all three competing quarterbacks saw time under center, including Alan Bowman. However, it was the Oklahoma State defense that was truly concerning, allowing Arkansas State to post a 44% success rate and average more than a half-yard per play.

The Cowboys are transitioning in a lot of new pieces, including new defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo from Gannon University and this can be a particularly tricky matchup against a similarly unknown quantity in Arizona State.

First year head coach Kenny Dillingham conducted arguably the best offense in the country last year at Oregon and is starting blue chip recruit Jaden Rashada at quarterback. While the team may not have the high level talent around him just yet, Rashada showcased his big arm in the team's win against Southern Utah and could outperform expectations against an Oklahoma State team we don't know much about.

Arizona State is rebuilding, but Oklahoma State may be overinflated at the moment. I'll lean into the unknown quantity and take a shot on the Sun Devils in the late night window.

PICK: Arizona State +3.5, +140

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!