This is a huge week for the Buffalo Bills as they host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11. The Bills spent much of the season looking like the future AFC champions and Super Bowl favorites. However, the Bills suffered a curious loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9 that brings some concern to the Super Bowl outlook.
The Colts aren’t a particularly exciting team but they are dangerous and have improved as the season has progressed. They still sit a couple of wins behind the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South and need to start beating better teams to close the gap.
Since the odds opened, there has been no movement on either the spread at 7.0 or the total of 50.0.
Colts vs. Bills Updated Odds, Spread, and Total
- Colts: +7.0 (-110)
- Bills: -7.0 (-110)
- Colts: +260
- Bills: -320
- 50.0 (Over -110/Under -110)
Colts vs. Bills Betting Trends
- The Colts are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games.
- The OVER is 5-2 in the Colts’ last seven games.
- The Colts are 8-4 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games against the Bills.
- The OVER is 6-1 in the Colts’ last seven road games.
- The Bills are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games.
- The Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games.
- The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC South.
Colts vs. Bills Prediction and Pick
Earlier in the week, BetSided’s Ben Heisler added the Colts to his upset picks to outright beat the Bills at +270. He points out that despite coming out of the gate with a 1-4 record, the Colts have turned things around and are 4-1 straight up in their last five outings.
While I don’t have the cojones Ben does to pick the Cots to outright beat the Bills, I do like where his head is at.
The Colts are gaining momentum and have improved on their game significantly since the first few weeks of the season. I am happy to take the touchdown buffer here and bet the Colts at +7.0 on the road here. The Bills are the more talented team but have struggled a bit recently that I find it hard to trust them right now. It wouldn’t surprise me if they blew out Indy but it also wouldn’t shock me if they got blown out themselves.
Pick: Indinapolis Colts +7.0 (-110)