NFL Week 11 Upset Picks: Vikings, Jaguars and Raiders Lead This Week's Predictions

Week 11 of the NFL season is upon us, and as crazy as it is that we're well past the halfway mark of the season, the BetSided team is still here to deliver our best upset picks for this week.

Last week, our team went 1-2-1 on straight up upset picks, but we nearly cashed in on a huge upset with the Detroit Lions forcing overtime to eventual tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here’s who we are backing in this week’s slate, with odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:

Minnesota Vikings (+120) vs. Green Bay Packers

If there's one way to beat the Packers, it's to run the ball on their defense. The Packers, while ranking as one of the top pass defenses in the NFL, are one of the worst in stopping the run. 

They sit 26th in opponent yards per carry, allowing teams to rack up an average of 4.6 per rush. The Vikings can let Dalvin Cook handle the majority of the workload on Sunday.

Also, while everyone is praising Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense, they rank 18th in the NFL in yards per play and 15th in yards per pass attempt. Despite their stellar record, this team is certainly beatable. I'll take Minnesota to pull off the upset. -- Iain MacMillan

Las Vegas Raiders (-105) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Raiders have been in this position before this season. They’ve lost back-to-back games before and came back with a vengeance. I see the blowout loss having more to do with the Kansas City Chiefs regaining form than the Raiders falling off. 

Las Vegas has one of the most efficient offenses in the league, as its top 10 in yards per game and yards per play. I think they will be able to move the ball well enough against a Bengals team that does allow over 360 yards of offense per game. If they can do that, I can see the Raiders cashing in as slight underdogs. -- Donnavan Smoot

Dallas Cowboys (+125) at Kansas City Chiefs

As our own Ben Heisler pointed out, the Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread at Arrowhead Stadium this season despite their 3-2 record at home. 

They’re facing a Dallas team that has covered in all but one game this season and sits at 7-2 and atop the NFC East. I don’t know if I can trust the Chiefs to put together another big game like they did against the Raiders, and Dallas certainly has the offensive firepower to exploit a Chiefs defense that still allows 6.2 yards per play this season. -- Peter Dewey

Jacksonville Jaguars (+215) vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are off of arguably their most impressive win of the season, rolling the Los Angeles Rams 31-10 on Monday Night Football, but now must turn around on short rest to go across the country and face the Jaguars. This is the perfect spot to catch the Niners sleeping after two straight division games and a bad travel spot to face a basement dwelling Jacksonville team.

However, the Jags stack up nicely against a Niners team that wants to run the ball, but may find issues on Sunday. Jacksonville is around league average in EPA per Rush on defense.

Most importantly, and what is driving me to this bet, is that Shanahan is 10-27-1 ATS as a favorite while coach of San Fran. I'm going one step further, I think the Jaguars win this in the upset of the weekend. -- Reed Wallach

Indianapolis Colts (+270) at Buffalo Bills

Let’s get a little bold in Week 11 when the Colts come to Buffalo to face a Bills team that looks like an NFL powerhouse one week, only to fall flat on their face the week after.

Both the Bills (+550) and Josh Allen (+300) are the league’s favorites to win the Super Bowl as well as NFL MVP, so it would make sense to see the line inflated as much as it is. 

I’d advise bettors, however, to not take the Colts lightly in this spot. Since starting off 1-4, Indianapolis has gone 4-1 over their last five games, with the lone loss to the No. 1 seed in the AFC in Tennessee in overtime.

There are also two things in Indy’s favor in this matchup that lead me to believe an upset can occur.

First, in games where Jonathan Taylor rushes for 80 yards or more, the Colts are 11-0. Over their last five games, Taylor is averaging 122 rushing yards/game.

Secondly, in games Josh Allen has been sacked three times, the Bills have lost all three games. The Colts have registered three sacks in two of their last three games.

The Horseshoe Heroes shock the Bills on Sunday, and hopefully you cash in as a result. -- Ben Heisler

NFL Upset Picks to Date:

LAST WEEK: 1-2-1

SEASON RECORD: 22-17-1