Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for July 19 (Back Nola, Gray)
Like a few teams around the league, I needed a few days off after last Friday's picks, which started out so promising, then went down the drain quickly.
While teams win about 70% of the time they get a quality start, it's been harder to nail down when those quality starts will happen and who will throw them. That's the nature and the randomness of baseball and betting on it is not for the faint of heart.
But, I'm undaunted and back at it with two picks for Friday's slate.
All picks are one unit unless otherwise specified and from DraftKings Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Pick
Aaron Nola battles Martin Perez in this duel in Pittsburgh, as the league's best first-half team kicks off the second half on the road.
Nola has 14 quality starts on the season, including the last five starts in a row and the Phillies are a remarkable 15-4 in his starts while averaging 5.30 runs in those 19 games.
I got burned taking the Phillies at home last week, but they're solid on the road, too at 25-18, while Pittsburgh is two games below .500 at home.
Perez has four quality starts in 14 outings this season, sporting a 5.15 ERA along with a 1-5 record and the Pirates are 4-10 in his starts in 2024.
The Pirates are building something longer-term, but this is a pitching mismatch.
Pick: Phillies Money Line -135 1.35 Units
St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves
Stuck in mediocrity in their last 45 games (23-22), the Braves find themselves 8.5 games behind the Phillies, but leading in the National League Wild Card race.
It's tough going against the Braves at home, where they are 29-17 on the season, but that's what I'm going to do.
Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach is full of potential and has been better at home than on the road, but he's been hittable in either situation.
The Cardinals knocked Schwellenbach around a little bit back in June, registering eight hits and four runs in five innings.
St. Louis is going with Sonny Gray, who has thrown eight quality starts in 17 outings on the season and the Cardinals are 11-6 with Gray on the mound.
Gray's ERA has been steadily rising and his last three starts before the All-Star Break weren't great, but his peripheral numbers are still good, such as a 2.56 FIP.
The Braves offense is not what it once was and I'm taking the veteran pitcher with a week's rest at a plus number.
PICK: Cardinals Money Line +110
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