Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for July 23 (Back Skenes, Berrios and Gilbert)
A rainout and a loss do not make a good day betting, but coming off the All-Star break it feels like multiple good options are taking the mound Tuesday and that has brightened my mood.
With some star pitchers taking the mound, let's use that to frame our best bets for Tuesday, July 23rd, including rising Cy Young candidate in rookie Paul Skenes.
A reminder that all bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted.
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Pick
Captain Obvious here, taking Paul Skenes and the Pirates to beat one of the teams I think will fade in the second half.
The choice of Skenes is no mystery, but I still feel the need to point out that he has nine quality starts in 11 outings, including the last six straight starts in which Skenes has a 1.14 ERA.
Regression will come for Skenes at some point, but I'm betting it's not today against Lance Lynn, who has six quality starts on the season.
The Pirates are 8-3 when Skenes starts while averaging 6.38 runs.
The money line number is -185, so I'm going with the Pirates Run Line , which is plus money.
PICK: Pirates Run Line -1.5 +120
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
I'm not thrilled about betting on the last-place Jays, but if I'm going to do it, I want Jose Berrios on the mound.
Berrios has registered 12 quality starts in 20 starts on the season and the Jays are 13-7 in his starts.
Much like the Cardinals above, the Rays are the other team I chose to fade in the second half and Berrios held the Rays to two runs in six innings in the season opener.
Tampa is going with an opener in Shawn Armstrong, so there is some risk not being exactly sure who Toronto will be facing for the bulk of the game.
PICK: Blue Jays Money Line -143 1.43 Units
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners Prediction and Pick
Nothing says quality start like Logan Gilbert (OK, maybe Skenes), who's hurled 16 quality starts in 20 outings on the season, including seven of the last eight.
Gilbert's last start before the All-Star break was seven innings of two-hit, shut out ball against the Angels, striking out 9 and walking no one.
All things considered, Jose Soriano hasn't been bad for the Angels, firing 6 quality starts in 15 outings and compiling a 3.71 ERA.
Soriano's last game was against Seattle and he was the winning pitcher, giving up a single run in six innings, but he also gave up four runs in six innings earlier this season against the Angels.
Betting on the Mariners offense is not for the faint of heart and despite Gilbert's numbers the Mariners are just 11-9 when he starts, averaging just 3.77 runs.
The Mariners are in spot right now with manager Scott Servais calling out the team.
This could go one of two ways and I'm betting on it firing up the team, at least in the short term.
I'm counting on the Mariners to tack on runs late and I'm taking the Run Line at plus money.
Mariners Run Line - 1.5 +120
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.