Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for June 14 (Back Gil, Skubal, Castillo)
Another close loss means I took a step back after consecutive 2-1 days, but I remain confident in these picks, taking my lumps and adding the lessons into my picks moving forward and implementing changes as early as today's picks.
On to today's matchups and we have some good ones on this Friday.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick
The Yankees have been good to me this season and I see no reason not to roll with them and Luis Gil against a mediocre Red Sox team.
Gil has seven quality starts in 13 outings on the season, and owns a 2.04 ERA and 2.64 xERA while striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings.
There are a couple of caveats with Gil, though. First, his BABIP of .185 is unsustainable and is due for regression and second, he walks 4.2 batters per nine innings.
I can live with those two things in this matchup.
Gil is opposed by Brayan Bello, someone I was on early in the season. But, Bello isn't having the season he had last season and the sample size is large enough to have changed my mind on him.
Bello has just two quality starts in 11 outings, with a 4.78 ERA and 4.32 xERA.
The Yankees are the better team with the better starting pitcher on the mound and the Red Sox have been better on the road than in Fenway.
PICK: Yankees Money Line -165
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction and Pick
When I first saw this number I admit to being surprised that it was only -106 with Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers.
Then I heard a lot about how Hunter Brown was the pitcher you should pay attention to in this matchup which as someone who watches a fair amount of Astros games, surprised me even more.
True enough, Brown's numbers are skewed heavily by early-season foibles and an unbelievably horrible outing against the Royals.
Brown also has four consecutive quality starts and is trending in the right direction.
Skubal meanwhile is a Cy Young Award candidate and has amazed 10 quality starts in 13 outings and has an ERA south of 2.00.
The narrative around Brown's improvement ignores the fact that Houston hasn't been very good and their best offensive player, Kyle Tucker, will either be out (he's eligible to come off the IL today) or likely be limited and they're getting nothing offensively from first base.
The Astros have also struggled on the back end of the bullpen this season, blowing 12 saves, are a lackluster 17-18 at Minute Maid Park and 3-10 in games Brown starts.
Maybe I'm reading this completely wrong, but I like the Tigers.
PICK: Tigers Money Line -106
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction and Pick
What a contrast coming into this one as the Rangers beat the Dodgers and the Mariners lost to the White Sox last night.
That said, Andrew Heaney is taking on Luis Castillo and this is a one-sided affair from the looks of it.
Heaney has three quality starts in 12 outings, while Castillo has nine quality starts in 14 times to the mound.
The Seattle offense is a problem long-term, but I think they'll squeak out enough runs to win this one.
I'm applying something that I learned in my last batch of Quality Start picks here: Don't get greedy by taking the Run Line when your pick has trouble scoring.
PICK: Mariners Money Line -155
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.