Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for May 10 (Back Glasnow, Houck, Suarez)
Going 2-2 on quality picks on Tuesday isn't exactly what I was looking for, but I feel much better about today's slate.
Today's picks do come with some extra risk though, as the spreads necessitate considering the run line in all three games.
That's worked to my benefit sometimes and sometimes it's bitten me, so it's bettor beware when considering your options.
Best MLB Bets for Friday, May 10th
- Phillies (-1.5) vs. Marlins
- Red Sox (-1.5) vs. Nationals
- Dodgers (1.5) vs. Padres
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction and Pick
There's not a lot of analysis for this one, as the Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball and the Marlins one of the worst.
What a season Ranger Suarez is having at 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 2.83 FIP. Even more than that Suarez expected numbers in xERA, xwOBA and wOBA are all in the top 5% of the league and his average exit velocity is in the top 1%.
Miami counters with lefty Trevor Rogers who is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA, after giving up 8 earned runs in 2.1 innings in his last outing against Oakland.
Rogers has been pretty good against these Phillies, but I expect Philly to pull away late.
The Phillies are 7-0 when Suarez starts, the Marlins are 0-7 when Rogers starts.
PICK: Phillies Run Line -1.5 -105
Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction and Pick
Tanner Houck has been part of a Red Sox pitching staff that continues to defy logic, leading all of MLB with a 155 ERA+, while sitting third in FIP.
Houck's expected ERA is 1.26 points higher than his actual ERA of 1.99, so regression is likely ahead for the Red Sox righty, but I'm betting it doesn't start tonight.
Part of the reasoning is Washington is an average offense, coming in with a 99 OPS+.
Houck will be a new face for the Nationals and that generally favors the pitcher and the Red Sox are at home, though that hasn't been a huge advantage for them so far in 2024.
With the money line favoring the Sox at -199, I'm looking at the Run Line, noting that combined the two teams have played one-run games only 23% of the time.
PICK: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 +101
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Pick
Tyler Glasnow has six quality starts in eight total starts on the season, including six of the last seven and the Dodgers have won seven of eight when he starts.
He's opposed by Michael King, who came over from the Yankees as part of the Juan Soto trade and has been up and down, as his 3-3 record and 4.29 ERA indicate.
In 41 plate appearances, current Padres are batting .118 of Glasnow, with a .214 wOBA. Meanwhile, current Dodgers are hitting King at a .300 average with a .442 wOBA.
PICK: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -101
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.