Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for May 24 (Back Lugo, Burnes, Sanchez)
What's the old saying about the definition of insanity being doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
That's how I sometimes feel with these quality start picks struggling early in the season.
But, I trudge on knowing I'm playing the long game and there's 70% or so of the season left, enough time to end with a respectable record.
Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays
The Royals are on a six-game winning streak and have Seth Lugo on the mound vs. a bullpen day for Tampa headed up by Shawn Armstrong.
Lugo's been brilliant this season, pitching to a 1.79 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and eight quality starts in 10 total outings.
Lugo is due for some regression, as his xERA is exactly double his actual ERA, but the Rays are an average to below-average offensive team, with little experience against Lugo.
Lugo has been very consistent through the first two months of the season and has been even better on the road, with a 4-0 record and 0.62 ERA and 0.66 WHIP.
PICK: Royals Money Line -116
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox
Several times this season I've been burned (no pun intended) by Corbin Burnes and the Orioles.
Let's face it though, the White Sox are horrible offensively, last in OPS+, slugging, OBP, and 29th in batting average (by a single point).
Burnes meanwhile has seven quality starts in 10 games, is averaging right at six innings per start, and has a 2.41 ERA and 2.83 xERA.
Chicago is trotting out Chris Flexen, who's pitched better than his traditional numbers indicate, but still holds a 4.38 xERA.
Perhaps the White Sox are fired up about how last night's game ended, but this is a big ask for the worst team in Major League Baseball.
PICK: Orioles Run Line -1.5 -154
Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies
The Philadelphia Phillies have taken advantage of the easiest schedule in baseball, but as I like to say, those wins still count.
Today they're in Colorado, with Cristopher Sanchez matching up with Ty Blach.
Sanchez has four quality starts in nine outings on the season, while Blach has pitched in a variety of roles for the Rockies, never going more than five innings.
While the Rockies are better offensively at home and have a somewhat respectable 9-12 mark in their friendly confines, the Phillies can mash and their offense at altitude screams runs.
There's also the fact that the Rockies are coming off three games against the A's, the final two of which went to extra innings, with a couple being blown by their taxed bullpen, including one I had all but marked as a win.
Philadelphia may come back down to earth, but it's not likely to be in this series.
PICK: Phillies Run Line -1.5 -130
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.