Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for September 17 (Back Ragans and Lynn)
With two weeks left in the regular season and most teams out of the playoff race, there are bound to be days where advantageous matchups are more difficult to find.
Today is one of those days, but after going 5-1 in our last two attempts, we're feeling better about the process as the season draws to a close.
Today, we go to the great state of Missouri for our two matchups, one of which has playoff implications.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals Prediction and Pick
Casey Mize is taking the mound for the surging Detroit Tigers and Mize has six quality starts in 19 tries on the season, with the Tigers going 11-8 in his starts.
Mize is opposed by Cole Ragans of the Kansas City Royals, who has 19 quality starts in 30 outings in 2024, but the Royals are just 15-15 in Ragans starts.
The Tigers rallied for a 7-6 win in the series opener on Monday and are now just a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
Ragans hasn't been spectacular at home, but the Royals have been, going 45-31 in Kauffman Stadium this season.
Ragans has two wins in two starts against the Tigers this season and I don't think the Royals lose two straight to Detroit in Kansas City.
PICK: Royals Run Line -1.5 +129
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Pick
Neither of these teams is going to the postseason, so I'm naturally suspicious about motivation and lineups in games like this.
That said, there's an advantage for the Cardinals playing in St. Louis with Lance Lynn on the mound.
Lynn hasn't been spectacular over the season, registering just six quality starts on the season, but he's been much better at home than on the road.
In Lynn's 12 starts at Busch Stadium, he's 5-0 with a 3.30 ERA, with 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
Lynn is not likely to register a quality start this late in the season and he's averaging just over 5 innings per start at home on the season.
The Pirates did knock Lynn around in St. Louis back in June, but he followed that up by throwing five shutout innings in Pittsburgh in July.
Lynn is opposed by Bailey Falter, who's recorded eight quality starts in 25 starts on the season, with the Pirates going 12-13 in those games.
The Cardinals are 27-20 in one-run games, Lynn is the better pitcher, the Cardinals are 40-35 at home and 14-8 when Lynn is the starting pitcher.
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals Money Line -142
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.