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Cowboys vs. Cardinals Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 3

Is it time to sell James Conner against the vaunted Cowboys defense?

By Reed Wallach

Sep 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) breaks the
Sep 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) breaks the / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
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The Cowboys enter Sunday's matchup against the Cardinals as the biggest favorites on the Week 3 NFL slate, how will that predicted game state impact the player prop market?

James Conner has received a ton of usage so far this season for the Cardinals, but will he struggle against the first elite defense he will face in 2023? Meanwhile, the Cowboys have its own bellcow back in Tony Pollard that is in line to shine for the Cowboys in Week 3.

Here's how I'm targeting both players rushing yard totals:

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Best Prop Bets for Cowboys vs. Cardinals

  • James Conner UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards
  • Tony Pollard OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards
  • Jake Ferguson OVER 2.5 Receptions

James Conner UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards

The Cardinals offense has centered around Conner the first two games, combining for 37 carries for 168 yards. However, I think using the prior two games as a barometer of success is misleading.

After a competitive game against the Commanders and a blown three possession lead against the Giants, the Cardinals are running into arguably the best defense in football and likely trailing for much of this game. The Cards are going to have to throw from behind in this one as I expect Dallas to build an early lead and limit any sort of offense from Arizona.

With the offense likely needing to attack via the pass, I'll go under on Conner's relatively high rushing yard prop.

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Tony Pollard OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards

While I expect Conner to struggle, Pollard should be in for a big day on the ground. The running back has been the clear No. 1 for Dallas, who has been up big in both games, leading to 39 carries for 142 yards.

Considering the Cowboys have been ahead nearly the entire season, and are predicted to do that yet again in Week 3 against an outmatched opponent, we have a good gauge of Pollard's production in this game state. He ran for 70 yards on only 14 carries in Week 1 and got to 72 on 25 carries against an elite run stopping unit in the Jets.

Getting to around 70 doesn't seem to be an issue for Pollard, but I lean towards an above average outcome given the state of the Cardinals poor rush defense.

Jake Ferguson OVER 2.5 Receptions

Ferguson has emerged as a key target for Dak Prescott in the Dallas' passing game. He had seven targets in Week 1, but only had two catches. In Week 2, he had four targets, hauling in three of them in the process.

I believe we are going to see a conservative game from the Cowboys, evident with the way the team played ball control against the Jets as a big favorite, which can feature a ton of check downs to the tight end. Ferguson is the clear top target amongst Dallas' tight ends, on the field for 72% of snaps in Week 1 and 60% in Week 2.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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