Road to 272 Bets - NFL Week 3 Picks for Every Game

The Road to 272 Bets continues as Iain MacMillan breaks down his best bet for every single NFL Week 3 game.

Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball
Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Road to 272 Bets took a bit of a hit in Week 2 after being red-hot in Week 1.

We finished 7-8-1 (-1.29 units) on the week, but that's okay. Not every week is going to be a winning one. All we can do is back to grind and try to get back to our winning ways in Week 3. We now sit at 18-13-1 (+4.94 units) on the season.

As always, you can check out the rules for the Road to 272 Bets in the Week 1 edition of the article here, and you can find my betting results and record on Betstamp here.

If you're going to tail any of my picks, I'd recommend doing so at PointsBet. It's important to have accounts at several sportsbooks to make sure you're finding the best odds possible, so if you don't have one at PointsBet than now is the time to sign up. For a limited time, new users will be given 10 second chance bets up to $100 each when they sign up! Just click the link below to take advantage of this offer.

Now, let's dive into my best bet for all 16 games set for Week 3 of the NFL season.

NFL Week 3 Best Bets for Every Game

Giants +11 (-110) at 49ers

I know the Giants had a terrible first six quarters of their season while San Francisco looks like a potential Super Bowl winner, but I just can't lay 11 points in this matchup. There are a few examples of similar situations this week where teams who have looked great in their first two weeks are facing teams who have looked bad in their first two weeks.

We have to do our best to not completely overreact to a two game sample size, so that's what I'm trying to do with these two teams. Let's also give Daniel Jones credit for looking fantastic in the second half against the Cardinals.

The 49ers should win this game without too much of a sweat, I have enough faith in the Giants offense to put up a bit of a fight. Let's also remember Brock Purdy missed a few throws last week. Let's see if he figures that out.

I'll take the points with New York on Thursday night.

Vikings -105 vs. Chargers

The Minnesota Vikings are ironically experiencing a season that's going completely the opposite as last season. In 2022, they won plenty of games that they were completely outplayed in. This year, they outplayed their opponents in their first two games but lost both of them.

Even last week, they gained 6.8 yards per play compared to 5.7 yards per play by Philadelphia. It was the four turnovers that lost them that game.

Meanwhile, the Chargers defense might be the worst defense in the NFL, allowing 6.9 yards per play through the first two weeks. I think the Vikings high-powered offense is going to have a field day against them.

Minnesota gets its first win of the season and Los Angeles falls to 0-3.

Bills -6.5 (-110) at Commanders

The Washington Commanders enter Week 3 with a 2-0 record, but let's remember who they played. They barely beat a bad Cardinals team and then managed to beat a Broncos team that looks no better than they did last year.

This is their first true test, and I think they're in for a rude awakening.

Don't let the Week 1 loss to the Jets fool you, this Bills team is once again going to be a top tier team in the NFL this season and they're used to beating up on inferior teams.

With the spread underneath the magic number of seven, I'll lay the points with the Bills.

Falcons +3.5 (-110) at Lions

Bias fan alert!

The Falcons are a good football team. I'm just going to say it.

They aren't great, but they are good. As I predicted, their defense has immensely improved compared to the past few seasons, and they've now allowed the third fewest yards per play through the first two weeks, giving up just 4.2 yards per snap.

Bijan Robinson also looks to be the real deal. He's averaging a blistering 6.2 yards per carry on 29 carries so far in his rookie campaign, and has been involved in the passing game as well.

Meanwhile, I don't know what to make of the Lions just quite yet. They're good, but just how good are they? Their secondary was lit up by the Seahawks in Week 2, and now CJ Gardner-Johnson could be out for the season with a torn pec.

I'll take the points with the Falcons. The Lions may win, but Atlanta's defense can keep it close at the very least.

Titans +140 vs. Browns

The Browns are a run-first team and now in their first game without Nick Chubb they have to take on one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Tennessee Titans. Not good.

The Titans allowed the fewest yards per carry in the NFL last year and they've picked up right where they left off in that category, allowing just 2.7 yards per rush through the first two weeks.

That means, for the Browns to have any chance at winning this game, they're going to have to do it with Deshaun Watson's arm and I just don't see that happening. As I predicted, Watson has been bad this season, completing just 55% of passes for a measly 5.63 yards per throw.

This bet is more of a fade of a Browns than a bet on the Titans, although Tennessee's offense did show some life in Week 2 against the Chargers. I think they pull off the upset.

Texans +9.5 (-110) at Jaguars

I'm disappointed by the Jaguars offense through the first two weeks. They gained just 4.2 yards per play against the Chiefs and failed to score a single touchdown. They're a solid team from top to bottom, but I haven't seen enough from them for me to want to lay almost double-digit points.

Meanwhile, the Texans may be 0-2, but I like what I've seen from CJ Stroud. Last week, he threw for 384 yards, two touchdowns, and has yet to throw an interception this season. Nico Collins and Robert Woods have also been great weapons for him out wide.

It's an ugly bet to make, but I don't think the Texans are as bad as people are evaluating them as. I'll take the 9.5 points with them on the road.

Saints +2 (-110) vs. Packers

Jordan Love has thrown a combined six touchdowns in his first two games this season, but that's covering up something that should be a huge concern for Packers fans. He has completed just 55.77% of his passes through the first two weeks. Sure, he isn't turning the ball over, but it's going to be tough to win games completing just barely over half your passes.

Things won't get any easier against a Saints defense that has completely shut down the pass in each of their first two games. They held Ryan Tannehill to completing just 47.1% of his passes for 198 yards and three interceptions and then Bryce Young completed 22-of-33 passes for just 153 yards on Monday night.

Derek Carr still has some things to figure out offensively for New Orleans, but the Saints defense is going to be the difference maker in this one.

I'll take the two points.

Jets +3 (-110) vs. Patriots

There are going to be times this season that I'm going to bet on the New England Patriots as underdogs, but I have no desire to lay three or more points on them, especially on the road. Their offense has gained just 4.5 yards per play, the fifth fewest in the NFL through the first two weeks.

Yes, they have a solid defense, but the Jets defense is significantly better.

Let's also admit that the Jets played better against the Cowboys than the final score indicated. In fact, they actually out gained them 4.7 yards per play to 4.6. The score would've been much closer if the Jets didn't turn the ball over four times.

Obviously, turnovers are a big part of the game and Zach Wilson has to make any Jets bettor nervous, but at the end of the day they have an elite defense and New England has little to offer offensively.

I'll take the three points with them at home.

Dolphins -6.5 (-105) vs. Broncos

I'm all on the Dolphins. I was high on them heading into the season and I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted the lines enough to make up for just how good this team is (remember when I said try not to overreact to two games? Oops).

Their offense is averaging a blistering 7.3 yards per play, one more full yards per play than the next best team. Their defense is going to hold them back at times, but their offense is good enough that they can be average and the Dolphins will still win and cover more often than not.

I've also been extremely disappointed in Denver's defense. They played at home in the first two weeks and still gave up 5.4 yards per play to the lowly Raiders and Commanders. People are pointing the finger at Russell Wilson and Sean Payton, but it's the defense that has held them back, especially in Week 2 against Washington.

Now, they have to hit the road and try to stop the likes of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill? No thanks.

I'll lay the points with Miami.

Colts +8.5 (-115) at Ravens

Anthony Richardson is likely out for the Colts in Week 3, but Gardner Minshew might be the best backup quarterback in the NFL so I don't evaluate it as too big of a hit on the Colts. Minshew completed 76% of passes for 171 yards and a touchdown when he came into the game last week.

My biggest takeaway from that game was the dominance from the Colts run defense, which shouldn't come as a massive surprise. It was by far their biggest strength last season. They rank sixth in opponent yards per carry giving up just 4.1 yards per rush. Now, they lead the NFL in that stat through the first two weeks, giving up just 2.6 yards per carry.

That's going to work out well for them against a Ravens team that runs the ball on 53.91% of plays, the third most in the league.

Even though the Ravens are the more skilled team, styles make fights in this sport and I think the Colts run defense can keep this game within striking distance for Indianapolis.

Panthers vs. Seahawks OVER 42.5 (-110)

The Seahawks may just be one of the best OVER teams in the NFL this season. We know about how good their offense can look at times and the plethora of weapons they have, but not enough people are talking about how bad their defense is.

They've given up 5.9 yards per play through the first three weeks.

So, while the Panthers offense has been completely atrocious, they're in a solid spot for a good performance in Week 3. Bryce Young struggled against the Falcons and Saints, but now he gets to face a secondary that's given up 8.9 yards per throw.

With the total in the low 40's, I'll back the OVER.

Cowboys -12 (-110) at Cardinals

The Cowboys are a very good football team, there's no doubt about that. I may have some concerns about them when they play other elite teams, but they're built to beat up on the bottom feeders in the NFL and that's what the Cardinals are.

Forget about how they looked through their first six quarters this season, Arizona showed its true colors in the second half against the Giants and it was ugly. I can't imagine Josh Dobbs having much success against this Cowboys defense.

The Cowboys are getting a sack on 14.93% of their opponents drop backs. That's an insane sack rate, and I wouldn't be surprised if they build on that this week.

I think this is going to be a beat down from start to finish. I'll lay the points with the Cowboys.

Bears +13.5 (-115) at Chiefs

This is the ugliest bet of the week. There's a very real chance that I'm going to regret placing this bet by the second quarter of this game, but I'm going to make it anyway.

Are the Bears bad? Absolutely. I thought the UNDER on their win total of 7.5 was the best futures bet on the market. With that being said, I don't think they're 13.5-point underdogs type of bad.

I also haven't seen enough from the defending champs for me to want to lay 13 points on them against anyone. They're just eighth in net yards per play through the first two weeks at +0.9. They'll win, but covering 13 points is asking a lot.

I'll reluctantly take the points with the Bears.

Raiders -104 vs. Steelers

The Raiders have outperformed people's expectations through the first two weeks and I don't think that's a fluke. Believe it or not, they actually gained more yards per play than the Bills, despite losing 38-10 in their Week 2 meeting. A -3 turnover differential and completing only three third downs killed them, but it showed me they'll be able to win some games against inferior opponents this season.

Then there's the Steelers, whose offense looks completely incompetent. Two defensive touchdowns got them the win against the Browns, but there's not much else there for me to get excited about.

Pittsburgh has once again been struggling to stop the run as well, an area that has been a weak spot for the team for a number of years. The Browns averaged 5.7 yards per carry against them on Monday night and the 49ers averaged 5.9 yards per carry against them in Week 1.

Look for the Raiders to smash the ball down their throat and get the win on Sunday Night Football.

Eagles -5.5 (-110) at Buccaneers

Despite being 2-0, the Eagles haven't played their best football yet this season. I think that changes on Monday night. The Buccaneers offensive line is one of the weaker units in the NFL and the Eagles pass rush is one of the most elite. Baker Mayfield is going to have a lot more trouble against this defense than what he had last week against the Bears.

Let's also pump the brakes on the Buccaneers being a good football team. They were supremely lucky to beat the Vikings in Week 1, sporting a net yards per play in that game of -2.3.

I'll back the Eagles to win and cover in a game where they're going to remind us they're the best team in the NFC.

Rams vs. Bengals OVER 43 (-110)

Joe Burrow is listed as questionable for this game, which has caused the point spread to come all the way down to 2.5. Don't bet the Rams just because he's out, the line has already adjusted to take that into consideration. At the same time, I don't want to back the Rams at +2.5 either in case Burrow declares he's playing, then the line's going to shift again and you'll be sitting there with a bad number.

So, instead, I'm going to fade the weakness of both teams; their defense.

The Rams and the Bengals rank in the bottom 11 in opponent yards per play through the first two weeks. The Bengals have given up 5.4 yards per snap and the Rams have given up 5.5.

Meanwhile, the Rams offense looks like a legitimately good unit. Matthew Stafford is healthy and Puka Nacua is on a historic pace as a rookie.

It's the final game of the week, let's just sit back and root for points.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!