Road to 272 Bets - NFL Week 1 Picks for Every Game
Hello friends, and welcome to the 2023 NFL season!
For those who don't know, a few years back I decided to do something extremely stupid and bet on every single NFL game in the regular season. At the time, I called it the Road to 256 Bets. Well, since then the NFL has extended their season by a week so it's been transformed to the Road to 272 Bets.
This will be my fourth year doing it and my first year having my picks in written form. If you want to listen to the podcast version of my picks, you can check out the Bacon Bets Podcast here or anywhere you get your podcasts.
Please note, I am not a professional bettor. A professional sports bettor would not bet on all 272 games. It's a dumb idea but I quite enjoy doing it. I've also had some decent success with it, at least in the first two seasons. Here is how I've done in each season so far:
- 2020: 130-119-7 (+5.79 units)
- 2021: 151-120-1 (+25.47 units)
- 2022: 128-135-9 (-12.32 units)
- Total: 409-374-17 (+18.94 units)
Before I officially kick-off the 2023 version of the Road to 272 Bets with my picks for all 16 Week 1 games, I'm going to break down the six rules I have in place for myself.
- I will place one bet on all 272 games
- All 272 bets will bet one unit flat bet
- A bet will be on a spread, total, player prop, or moneyline underdog (no moneyline favorites).
- Must place at least one moneyline underdog bet a week
- All bets will be placed at regulated sportsbooks
- All bets will be tracked on my BetStamp account (@IainMacBets).
Finally, if you're going to tail my Week 1 bets, I'd recommend taking advantage of this offer by FanDuel Sportsbook. For a limited time, if you click the link below and bet $5 on any game, you'll receive $200 in bonus bets AND get $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket.
Finally, the moment we've all been waiting for. Let's begin the 2023 edition of the Road to 272 Bets.
NFL Week 1 Best Bets for Every Game
Chiefs -6.5 (-105) vs. Lions
In years past I've generally bet against the Chiefs more than I've bet on them. As good as they've been, they've been a subpar spread bet over the past few years (26-32-1 ATS since 2020).
With that being said, I'm going to back them on opening night. A general Week 1 strategy I like to follow is to bet against teams that have been getting a lot of offseason hype and bet on teams who are getting a lot of offseason hate. The Lions fall under the former category.
I know they added key pieces like C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Cameron Sutton on defense, but they have a lot of ground to make up to people able to hold off Patrick Mahomes. The Lions were dead last in 2022 in opponent yards per play (6.2) and 30th in opponent points per play (0.397).
I think taking on the defending Super Bowl champs on Opening Night is going to be a case of biting off more than you can chew.
Ravens -10 (-110) vs. Texans
I think this is a nightmare matchup for a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback. DeMeco Ryans will make his regular season head coaching debut against John Harbaugh, who is 11-4 against the spread in Week 1 since taking over as the Ravens head coach.
Then you have CJ Stroud, who will be following up a less-than-encouraging preseason by making his professional debut against a stout Ravens defense that I expect to be a top 10 (maybe top 5?) unit this season.
Laying double-digit points in Week 1 is scary, but this is a spot where I'm willing to do it.
Panthers/Falcons UNDER 39.5 (-110)
I've been hyping up my Falcons all season, but that 3.5-point spread is a tough one. Do I think the Falcons win this game? Absolutely. Am I willing to laying 3.5-points on them in a game that has so many unknowns like Bryce Young and Desmond Ridder? Absolutely not.
The UNDER is going to be my play here instead. The big reason I've been excited for this iteration of the Dirty Birds has been they great signings they've made on the defensive side of the football. Jessie Bates, Bud Dupree and David Onyemata are just a few of the proven veterans they've added.
Then there's the Panthers defense which I think is better than a lot of people think.
Toss in a few hiccups from Bryce Young in his pro debut along with a Falcons offense that should be run-heavy and I think we're due for a relatively low-scoring affair.
Buccaneers +6 (-110) vs. Vikings
A lot of people are low on the Buccaneers this season. While I'm not going to make the case that they're a playoff team, I think they're a bit better than most people think. Don't yell at me, but I don't think Baker Mayfield is a HUGE drop off from last year's version of Tom Brady.
Let's remember they still have the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and their defense is still a solid unit. Most notably, they ranked ninth in the NFL last season in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.2).
The Vikings defense left a lot to be desired last season as well, ranking 30th in opponent yards per play (5.9). They should be better under Brian Flores, but I'm not rushing to lay six points on this team in a Week 1 game.
Jaguars -4.5 (-110) vs. Colts
I'm high on the Jaguars this season and I'm very very low on the Colts. There is turmoil between the ownership in the players, Jonathan Taylor will be sitting out at least four weeks, and I'm not totally sold on Anthony Richardson. I think he's a raw player that would have benefited from sitting behind Gardner Minshew to start the season.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars were one of the better teams in the second half of the season last year. Trevor Lawrence took significant steps forward and their young roster should be even better this year, especially with the addition of Calvin Ridley.
I'd set the Jaguars as 6-point favorites in this game, so I won't hesitate to jump on them with the line available at -4.5.
Saints -3 (-115) vs. Titans
Ah, my two of my least favorite teams facing off in Week 1. What a treat!
I thought the Saints were better than their record indicated last season. Their -0.6 (31st ranked) average turnover margin per game cost them a few wins. I don't know if Derek Carr is necessarily going to fix that problem, but I think they have a much better chance at success than the Titans.
Derrick Henry is finished, my friends. Their lack of offensive weapons will force them to hand him the ball 25 times a game again, but 4.4 yards per carry isn't going to get it done in the NFL.
I'll back the Saints to win and cover at home in Week 1.
Cardinals +7.5 (-110) vs. Commanders
We have heard nothing but bad things about the Cardinals this offseason. They're the betting favorite to finish in last place and their win total has recently dropped to just 3.5 wins. I agree they're not going to be a good team, but I think things have gotten out of hand with their season projection.
Do the Commanders, who are a borderline wild card team AT BEST, really deserve to be favorites of more than a touchdown over any team in the NFL in Week 1? I don't think so.
Plug your nose. This is my ugly bet of the week.
Steelers +2.5 (-110) vs. 49ers
The big question surrounding both of these teams this season is their quarterback play. Can Brock Purdy repeat the success he had last season as Mr. Irrelevant? Can Kenny Pickett take a step forward and be the QB of the future for the Steelers?
With as many question marks on offense for both teams, there's a level of certainty around their defense. We know both units will be amongst the best in the NFL.
These are two teams I need to see some more of before I get a good feel of how I want to bet on them this season, so I'm going to take the points with the home team in Week 1 and hope for a close game.
Bengals/Browns UNDER 47.5 (-110)
We saw how Joe Burrow looked last season after not competing in the preseason. If that's any indication of how the start of the Bengals 2023 campaign will go, we should stay away from betting on their offense.
When it comes to the Browns, I have no faith in Deshaun Watson looking like the version of himself that was an MVP candidate with the Texans. He completed just 58.2% of passes in six games last season.
I expect the Bengals to ease Burrow into the season and the Browns to largely stick to the run game. I'd set the total for this game closer to 46, so I think we're getting a couple of points of value with it being set at 47.5.
Eagles -3.5 (-110) vs. Patriots
One of the things I'm looking forward to the most this season is the complete and total implosion of the New England Patriots. That process is going to start with a hell of a tough Week 1 matchup against the defending NFC champions.
Jalen Hurts is my best bet to win NFL MVP and the Philadelphia defense is once again going to be one of the most dominant units in the league. Do you really trust Mac Jones and the Patriots complete lack of offensive weapons against this juggernaut of a football team? I certainly don't.
A 3.5-point spread is a gift from Gamblor the Gambling God.
Raiders +4 (-105) vs. Broncos
The Raiders are another team that I'm not as low on as some other people are. I have famously been a Jimmy Garoppolo defender, so I need to put my money where my mouth is with this one. I also think Maxx Crosby is a great dark horse bet to win defensive player of the year.
The Raiders have enough pieces to at least keep this game close, especially against a Broncos squad that I need to witness take a step forward before I can bet on them as favorites of more than a field goal.
If Nathaniel Hackett was still the head coach, would you lay this many points on the Broncos? Probably not. Sure, Sean Payton might make a huge difference, but I have to see it with my own eyes before I can back that claim up with my bankroll.
Dolphins +3 (-110) vs. Chargers
I was a big time Dolphins (and more notably Tua Tagovailoa) defender last season, so I'm going to rate them higher than most people are heading into the season.
People forget that Tua had the third highest QBR last season behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, while also ranking second in quarterback ranking behind only Brock Purdy.
Their defense is improved and the Chargers are once again, slightly over-hyped. Let's not forget this Los Angeles team allowed opponents to gain 5.4 yards per carry against them in 2022. Three points is too much for me to lay in this spot. I'll take the points with the Dolphins.
Rams +200 vs. Seahawks
My Upset of the Week for the opening slate of the 2023 season is the Rams to take down the Seahawks in Seattle. The Seahawks were a feel good story last year, making the playoffs after being projected as the worst team in the league. But, I truly think they were a product of a short NFL schedule.
If the NFL schedule had 82 games in it, like the NBA or NHL, the Seahawks would've been a below average to bad team. The beauty of the NFL season is if a few close games go your way, that can be enough to completely swing a season. I think they're going to take a significant step back this season.
Also, I may be foolish to think this, but I don't think the Rams are nearly as bad as they were last season. Now with their starters (mostly) healthy and back in the mix, they'll be more competitive than people think.
A 2/1 underdog in a divisional rival game in Week 1? Sign me up.
Packers +100 vs. Bears
I'll throw away the point on the Packers and just take them on the moneyline in Week 1 against the Bears.
I'm not high on either of these teams this season, but I'm especially not high on the Bears. I truly don't understand where the hype for their team or Justin Fields comes from after winning just three games in 2022. Oh, you added DJ Moore? Wow. Amazing.
Who knows what we'll get from Jordan Love in Week 1, but this is purely a bet against an over-hyped and over-valued Bears team.
Giants +3.5 (-115) vs. Cowboys
I was certain the Giants weren't as good as their record indicated last season, but it seems to be clear that they at least got themselves a hell of a head coach in Brian Daboll. I also liked what the Giants did with their offseason and I'm optimistic about this team in 2023.
The Cowboys may be the more talented team, but Dak Prescott struggled mightily with turnovers last season and Mike McCarthy might be the worst head coach in the NFL.
With the spread set at over a field goal, I'll gladly back the home underdogs.
Bills -2.5 (-110) vs. Jets
The hype around the New York Jets may have got a little bit out of control. Listen, I love their defense and I praised that unit all of last season, but this is going to be a huge test for them on Monday Night Football against a true Super Bowl contender in the Bills.
Can Aaron Rodgers return to MVP form after a pretty bad 2022 season with the Packers? It's hard to say.
This is by far the game of the week and if the spread was over a field goal, I'd probably take the Jets. But, with it at 2.5-points, I'll back the more proven team in the Bills. A team that had the highest average scoring margin in the AFC last season at +8.6.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!