Okay, hand up. Yesterday's strategy of doing the complete opposite of what I'd normally do completely blew up in my face.
I tried to pull a George Costanza and take the opposite approach to my bets and ended up going 0-3. If I would've stuck to the way I've been handicapping all season, I would've gone 3-0. Lesson learned.
We move on to Saturday's loaded slate and I once again have three bets locked in for today's action. This time, I'm going back to the way I've been handicapping basketball for the past six years. I'm not going to big brain myself into doing something stupid again like yesterday.
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Best NCAAB Bets Today
- UCF -10.5 vs. Lipscomb
- Washington +4.5 vs. Colorado State
- Gonzaga vs. USC UNDER 152.5
Lipscomb vs. UCF prediction
Lipscomb has been shooting the lights out this season, ranking 38th in effective field goal percentage, but now it faces its toughest challenge of the season in UCF. The Knights have already been battle-tested this season in a game against Miami and should thrive in this spot against the Bisons.
Keep an eye on the interior offense of the Knights. 66.7% of their shots come from two-point range, which ranks inside the top 100 in the country. That just so happens to be the weakness of the Bisons. 56.1% of the points scored against Lipscomb comes from that area, which ranks 297th in the country. The Bisons also allow teams to shoot 51.5% from the interior.
Finally, the Knights rank 63rd in the country in defensive efficiency so as long as they can get their offense going, they're going to be in a good spot to win an cover.
Pick: UCF -10.5
Colorado State vs. Washington prediction
Colorado State has been shooting the lights out all season, but the Rams may be due for some regression, especially now that they face a Washington squad that's 14th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage.
This will prove to be a tougher test for Colorado State than many people might expect. Defense is going to be the difference maker in this one and without the Rams having their home court advantage (it's a neutral site game in Las Vegas), then I'm more than willing to take the points with the Huskies.
Picks: Washington +4.5
Gonzaga vs. USC prediction
If you want a bit of a deeper dive into what just might be the best game of the day, check out Reed Wallach's full betting preview here, where he breaks down everything you need to know as well as his pick on a side.
Instead of a side, I'm looking at the total instead and I'm going to take the UNDER 152.5.
Defense is the strength of this Bulldogs team, ranking 58th in defensive efficiency but just 138th in effective field goal percentage. We should also consider pace of play for this Trojans teams. They rank just 269th in the country in field goal attempts per game, which doesn't quite warrant the high total in tonight's game.
I'll take the UNDER in this marquee matchup.
Pick: UNDER 152.5
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!