We finally got back on track on Monday with my college basketball bets, going 2-1 for a small profit.
With Tuesday night's slate being such a good one, I have four bets locked in this time around, including one for the Big Ten showdown between Wisconsin and Michigan State.
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Best NCAAB Bets Today
- Florida Atlantic vs. Illinois OVER 145.5
- Michigan State -5 vs. Wisconsin
- Liberty -31 vs. Mississippi Valley State
- Seton Hall vs. Baylor OVER 147.5 (-115)
Florida Atlantic vs. Illinois prediction
Florida Atlantic is once again one of the better shooting teams in the country, coming into tonight ranking 13th in effective field goal percentage. Illinois isn't bad itself, ranking 78th in that stat.
There could be an argument to be made the UNDER is the way to go in this one based on how good the Fighting Illini have been defensively this season, currently ranking second in defensive efficiency, but I think we're going to see some regression in that area sooner rather than later. They haven't exactly faced many offensive juggernauts this season and the only good shooting team they have played, Marquette, scoring 71 points against them.
We should also consider each team's pace of play. Illinois comes in ranking 23rd in field goal attempts per game while Florida Atlantic also ranks in the top half of the country in that stat.
I think this is going to be an offensive affair so I feel comfortable backing the OVER at 145.5.
Pick: OVER 145.5 (-110)
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin prediction
Michigan State got off to a rocky start to its season, but we've seen some significant improvement in the Spartans' shooting of late. But, it's not their offense that's making me bet on them tonight, it's their defense. Despite playing a schedule that has involved playing against the likes of Duke and Arizona, the Spartans rank 10th in the country in defensive efficiency.
The story of the game is going to be in the interior for both teams. Each of them rank in the top 100 in two-point shot rate, keeping the majority of their offense inside the 3-point line, but it's Michigan State with the far superior interior defense. The Spartans rank 16th in opponent two-point field goal percentage (42.3%) while Wisconsin ranks 207th (51%).
I'll lay the points with the Spartans in this Big Ten showdown.
Pick: Michigan State -5 (-110)
Liberty vs. Mississippi Valley State prediction
It's a massive spread at 31 points, but we have a chance to bet on one of the best shooting teams in the country against the very worst. Of 362 Division 1 teams, Mississippi Valley State ranks 362nd in defensive efficiency. Liberty, on the other hand, is 17th in that stat. In terms of offense, this is about as lopsided as a matchup as you'll find.
If you think defense is going to be a different story, it's not. Mississippi Valley State comes in at 345th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 359th in defensive efficiency.
Sometimes sports betting is as easy as betting against the worst teams, so that's what we're doing tonight.
Pick: Liberty -31 (-110)
Seton Hall vs. Baylor prediction
One of my favorite stats to look at when evaluating total bets is "Floor%," which measures the percentage of a team's possessions that result in at least one point being scored. The Baylor Bears lead the entire country in that stat, scoring at least one point on 58.6% of their possessions, which is 0.9% better than the next best team.
Seton Hall isn't too shabby at Floor% either, coming in at 48th.
That tells me that when these teams have the ball in their hands, they find ways to get on the scoreboard. It also helps that both teams rank inside the top 130 in field goal attempts per game, so it's not like they're waiting until the last second on the shot clock.
I think this is a great spot to sit back and root for points by betting on the OVER.
Pick: OVER 147.5 (-115)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!