Dawson Knox's Usage Indicates High Upside on Prop Bets

Buffalo Bulls’ tight end Dawson Knox was a major factor in the team’s recent first-round victory over the New England Patriots. In that blowout win, Knox caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns. It was Knox’s third multi-touchdown game of the season and was his highest yards total since Week 5 against the Chiefs. 

Knox now has 76 targets total which is right around 10 percent of the team’s total passing attempts including 17 in the red zone. He has been on the receiving end of 14.5 percent of the 124 Bills’ red-zone passing attempts so far this season. While these numbers aren’t exactly setting the world on fire, Knox is seeing more attention in the passing game and we can apply that knowledge to our second-round prop bets. 

Looking ahead to their second-round matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, I think there is a good chance that Knox is once again heavily involved in the Bills’ red zone strategy. While WynnBET has yet to post player props for this game, we can still predict Knox’s performance. First off, ironically, Knox’s best game of the year was against the Chiefs earlier in the season. Knox made the most of his three receptions with 117 yards and a touchdown on the day. It was one of six touchdowns the Chiefs have given up to opposing tight ends. The Chiefs have surrendered the 14th most passing yards to tight ends so far this year off 84 catches. So, while the Chiefs aren’t bad at defending the tight end position, they don’t do a great job of stopping them either. 

Overall the Chiefs have one of the weaker passing defenses in the league ranking 23rd in yards per pass, 25th in opponents passes per game and 26th in opponents passing yards per game. The Chiefs are also allowing opponents to score on 57.63 percent of their trips to the red zone where Knox likes to operate. If the Bills offense is clicking as it did on Sunday against the Steelers, Knox would make for a strong OVER bet for player props.