Denver Broncos 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

2015 was a magical season for the Denver Broncos. In fact, it was so perfect, that the team has failed to make the postseason ever since! Why take away those memories of perfection as Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, right?

2021 could be the year that changes all that. The Broncos enter their third season under head coach Vic Fangio, who’s underwhelmed since he’s taken over for Vance Joseph in 2019. Fangio is just 14-20 in his two seasons in Denver, regressing from 7-9 to 5-11 in his second year. 

While key preseason injuries to stars like Von Miller and Courtland Sutton played a prominent role in Denver’s last-place season, a lot of the onus fell onto second-year quarterback Drew Lock. After finishing 4-1 in the Broncos’ final five games of 2019, Lock went 4-9 in 2020, throwing for 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions; completing just 57.3% of his passes. 

The Broncos needed more competition at the most important position, and rather than select potential first-round options like Justin Fields or Mac Jones at pick number nine, they traded a late-round pick to the Panthers for veteran Teddy Bridgewater, who ultimately won the starting quarterback spot in training camp over Lock.

Bridgewater didn’t make it to the playoffs either, as Carolina finished one pick higher in the Draft than that of the Broncos, but he appears to be a better fit for this offense moving forward with a wide variety of playmakers that need more completions and fewer takeaways to be successful.

Denver Broncos 2021 Team Outlook

Bridgewater was acquired in large part due to his steady veteran leadership, and also his familiarity with new Broncos GM George Paton during their time together with the Minnesota Vikings. While bettors have embraced Bridgewater as one of the assured spread-covering quarterbacks over the last several years, Broncos fans have to feel like this is a move that’s designed to be “playoffs or bust,” Lock is only in his third season in Denver with plenty of potential upside. But Denver has decidedly moved on, hoping that they see the Bridgewater that went 22-12 as a starter before going 4-11 last year with the Panthers.

The Broncos’ offensive line has some talent to keep Bridgewater upright, notably led by star left tackle Garrett Bolles, but the rest of the line was rather inconsistent in 2020, and enter the 2021 season as Pro Football Focus’ 21st ranked unit. One new name to keep an eye on is new right tackle Bobby Massie, who Fangio is very familiar with from his time in Chicago.

Running back looks like a committee between veteran Melvin Gordon, and intriguing newcomer Javonte Williams out of North Carolina. After a slow start, Gordon rushed for 986 yards and nine touchdowns but had the lowest pass-catching output of his career with just 32 receptions. Both Williams and Gordon have the ability to catch out of the backfield, but Williams could end up seeing more carries and opportunities for catches sooner than Gordon might like. 

Receiver and tight end have the ability to be a top 5 unit for the Broncos. Last year, first-round rookie receiver Jerry Jeudy was targeted 113 times by Drew Lock, but somehow only caught 53 passes for 856 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a catch rate of only 46%. While Jeudy dealt with some drop issues last season (14, tied for second-most in the NFL), Bridgewater, a career 69% completion quarterback, should get Jeudy the ball much more frequently. Denver will also have their former number one standout Courtland Sutton back after missing last season with a torn ACL. Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler should also make solid contributions in the pass game as well. Patrick, a potential trade candidate is currently way back on the depth chart despite leading the team in receiving yards per catch, as well as six touchdowns. At tight end, Noah Fant remains one of the highest upside tight ends in the league with his explosiveness both in the middle of the field, in the red zone, and downfield. The only issue for Fant is both health, as well as an opportunity with so many talented pass catchers around him.

Defensively, Denver’s defense was not good in 2020, ranking 25th in the league in points allowed; very surprising for a Vic Fangio-coached team. Fangio, known as one of the most innovative defensive minds in the NFL has dealt with injuries and inconsistent play through his first two years, but expectations are much higher in year 3.

His trademark 3-4 defense will have Von Miller back, who despite entering his age 32 season, still has plenty left in the tank if he can stay on the field. Shelby Harris, Mike Purcell and Dre’Mont Jones are expected to lead the charge up front, with Miller on the edge creating havoc with Bradley Chubb on the outside. The inside linebackers in Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson remain consistent options, but they’ll be able to do their job even better if the edge rushers are active.

In the secondary, this has the makings of one of the best units in the league. The Broncos signed veteran cornerback Kyle Fuller after being a cap casualty in Chicago along with Ronald Darby. Fuller was one of the elite corners in the NFL under Fangio in Chicago, and should contribute right away towards the development of first-round rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain II. At the safety spots, Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons will hold it down at safety, making the outstanding, but often-injured nickel cornerback Bryce Callahan potentially available via trade.

Denver Broncos 2021 NFL Draft

Despite two clear first-round quarterbacks on the board, Denver took perhaps the top cornerback in the draft in Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II with the ninth overall pick in the first round. Surtain was the projected number one corner across the bulk of mock drafts, but the Panthers selected South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn one pick ahead of him at number eight.

In the second round, running back Javonte Williams from North Carolina enters the backfield competing for touches behind Melvin Gordon, but has already leap-frogged Royce Freeman on the depth chart.

Here are the rest of the Broncos draft selections from 2021:

• Round 3: Quinn Meinerz, G, Wisconsin-Whitewater
• Round 3: Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State 
• Round 5: Caden Sterns, S, Texas
• Round 5: Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana
• Round 6: Seth Williams, WR, Auburn
• Round 7: Kary Vincent Jr., CB, LSU
• Round 7: Jonathan Cooper, DE, Ohio State
• Round 7: Marquiss Spencer, DE, Mississippi State

Denver Broncos Team Odds: Division (+600), Conference (+2500), Super Bowl (+5000)

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the class of the AFC West division, coming in at WynnBET at odds of -310 to take home another championship. The Los Angeles Chargers fall behind at +450 odds, with the Broncos (+600) and Las Vegas Raiders holding up the caboose at +2000. 

Should the Broncos get to the Super Bowl, bettors backing them to win the AFC Championship game at WynnBET would cash in on a 25/1, or +2500 ticket. If they end up winning the whole damn thing for the first time since 2015 in their first trip back to the playoffs, bettors would celebrate with prices currently listed at 50/1 odds.

Denver Broncos Regular Season Win Total: 8.5 WINS | OVER (-135), UNDER (+115)

Ben Heisler: 

If the Broncos are serious about trying to win right now, then I agree with their decision to go to the veteran Bridgewater to start the season over Drew Lock in his third year.

I still think Lock has an opportunity to be a successful quarterback in the NFL, but he may be in that Ryan Tannehill mode of needed a few more years and a new coach and location to really get himself turned around. The turnovers are costly, but he’s got a terrific arm, mobility, and by all accounts a terrific leader in their locker room. He’s said all the right things publicly, but there’s no doubt he’s disappointed by the decision.

Bridgewater, having spent the previous year in Carolina should know all about getting the ball out quickly, especially to his running backs. Both Gordon and Williams are excellent pass catchers and should have plenty of space to work with out of the flat with opposing defenses needing to pay attention to Denver’s talented group of receivers. Bridgewater will limit the turnovers and keep their offense on the field for longer, more sustained drives, which in turn will help Denver’s defense stay fresh and return back to a top 15 caliber defense in the league.

I like Denver quite a bit this year, but too much competition in the AFC, as well as in their own division will be too much for them to get into the postseason. They’re on the right path, but it just won’t be enough this year.

I also like them to get a win in their first game of the year on the road against the Giants.

PREDICTION: OVER 8.5 WINS

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+425)

Donnavan Smoot:

Denver decided to put its trust into Teddy Bridgewater, which raises the floor for the Broncos but also puts a cap on what their ceiling can ultimately be. Bridgewater is the epitome of a game-manager, but that is exactly what the Broncos need. 

The Broncos have one of the most talented rosters in the league and have been waiting for a quarterback to come along and unlock its potential. While I think Bridgewater can do a little bit of that, I don’t see the Broncos being amazing this season. 

Jerry Jeudy still has a lot of questions to answer after a subpar rookie season. On the other side of him is Courtland Sutton, who’s coming off an ACL injury. Then the Broncos have to decide how to split time between their running backs in the backfield. Denver has a lot of talent, but figuring out where it all fits is going to be a challenge. 

Denver’s defense should be better this year with Von Miller returning and the addition of Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos were eighth in the league in sacks last season, averaging 2.6 sacks per game. If they can keep the pass rush at an elite level, Justin Simmons and the secondary should be able to keep the points lower than the 27.9 points per game average they allowed last season. 

Unfortunately for the Broncos, their division has three of the most powerful offenses in the league, which will put pressure on Bridgewater to play outside of himself and possibly be a gunslinger. I don’t see that happening, and I see Denver fighting just to improve to an 8-9 win team.

PREDICTION: UNDER 8.5 WINS 

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 8 WINS (+525)

Peter Dewey:

Full disclosure, the Denver Broncos and my fandom go way, way back.

However, I really think this might be the year that they turn things around after a dismal few seasons since their Super Bowl 50 victory. 

Teddy Bridgewater is going to provide the Broncos with a nice floor at quarterback compared to the erratic playo of Drew Lock, but this is a playoffs or bust kind of year for the Broncos, as I wrote in FanSided’s NFL Season Preview.

Vic Fangio knows that his time is ticking for Denver, but I think a healthy and rebuilt defense along with Bridgewater at quarterback could be a recipe for success. Von Miller is back, and Kyle Fuller, Patrick Surtain II and Bryce Callahan form one of the best cornerback groups in the NFL. 

Bridgewater will have plenty of weapons with Courtland Sutton healthy and Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant and KJ Hamler all in the mix as well. The Broncos are going to either easily go over their win total if Bridgewater plays as well as they expect, or they’re going to be one of the NFL’s worst teams again. I don’t see much of an in between.

That being said, I’ll take the Broncos to make a playoff push with double-digit wins in 2021.

PREDICTION: OVER 8.5 WINS (-135)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 10 WINS (+525)

Iain MacMillan:

The Broncos made the right choice going with Teddy Bridgewater. I think the guy is a stud and he’s 36-14 ATS as a starting QB in the NFL for a cover rate of 72%. You’re damn right I’ll be betting on the Broncos in week 1 against the Giants.

I think their win total of 8.5 is a sharp line, that’s right where I would set it. I think Bridgewater will be consistent at worst, so how the team performs will come down to coaching and its defense. Is their defense truly as bad as they performed last year, or will they get better now that they’re healthy?

It doesn’t help that they’re in a tough division with arguably the top team in the NFL along with two other clubs that aren’t an easy night out.

I’m going to take the under on 8.5 wins, but I don’t feel great about it.

PREDICTION: UNDER 8.5 WINS (+115)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 8 WINS (+525)

Will the Denver Broncos Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-210), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+155)

Ben Heisler: 

Despite the Broncos set to play their best season under Vic Fangio, I ultimately see the toughness of the AFC West and improved conference winning in the proverbial arm wrestle over the Broncos’ shot at the postseason. The Chiefs aren’t going anywhere, the Chargers have just as much talent on both sides of the ball with a superior quarterback, and there’s still much unknown with Denver.

In almost every season over the past 18 years, a last place team has come back to finish in first place the following season. Denver would just need to finish in second place to likely get a playoff spot. They’ll finish a game out, with three teams in the AFC East claiming the remaining spots ahead of them.

PREDICTION: NO (-210)

Donnavan Smoot:

Denver isn’t going to make the playoffs this season. The AFC West is too crowded for them and they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the other teams in the conference. I’m assuming the Chargers and Browns will take up the wild card spots, leaving one for the rest of the conference. I don’t trust the Broncos to grab that spot over the AFC East playoff contenders nor the AFC South contenders.

The Broncos have the second-longest playoff drought (5 years) and will sadly see that extend this season. 

PREDICTION: NO (-210)

Peter Dewey: 

If the Broncos follow through with my 10-win projection, I think they have a solid chance of making the postseason in 2021. 

The AFC is going to have some spots up for grabs with the Pittsburgh Steelers and potentially the Indianapolis Colts expected to regress, and I like the Broncos’ +155 odds to make the postseason. 

While it’s far from a guarantee, similar to the Dolphins and Patriots I’d rather take a borderline playoff team’s plus odds to make the field than taking the -210 juice for them to miss the postseason. 

Bridgewater could really cement himself as a beloved figure in Denver if the Broncos finally get back to the postseason. 

PREDICTION: YES (+155)

Iain MacMillan:

There’s only so many playoff spots, especially in the AFC. Last year, the Dolphins managed to go 10-6 and still missed the postseason. Now with the expanded schedule, you have to think that a team will need to win 11 games to make it into the postseason.

Can the Broncos win 11 games? I highly doubt it.

Yes, they should take a step forward this season, but if they want to reach 11 wins they’ll need to go at least 4-2 against AFC West opponents and I just can’t see that happening. Denver will miss the playoffs once again.

PREDICTION: NO (-210)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey, and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff, and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Up next, we preview the betting outlook for the Las Vegas Raiders and check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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