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Dolphins vs. Patriots: Odds, Spread, Over/Under and Prediction for NFL Week 1

By Peter Dewey

Mac Jones will make his NFL debut against the Dolphins.
Mac Jones will make his NFL debut against the Dolphins. / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
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Former collegiate teammates at the University of Alabama Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa will face off in an AFC East clash in Week 1. The New England Patriots and Jones, their first-round pick in this year’s draft, will host the Miami Dolphins at 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. 

Miami is coming off a strong 10-6 campaign where Tagovailoa was 6-3 as a starter, but Tua didn’t post the gaudy numbers that Dolphins fans would’ve hoped, throwing for just 1,814 yards, 11 scores, and five picks. 

Jones will get a chance to prove the Patriots made the right move by cutting Cam Newton this offseason, and he’ll have the home crowd behind him in his debut. A revamped Patriots roster should make them better than last year’s 7-9 finish, but a lot of that will depend on Jones’ ability to develop as the season progresses. 

If he plays like he did in the preseason, the Patriots are in good hands. 

Here’s how the odds look at WynnBET Sportsbook: 

Dolphins vs. Patriots Spread, Odds and Over/Under

Spread: 

Dolphins +2.5: +100

Patriots -2.5: -120

Moneyline:

Dolphins: +130

Patriots: -150

Over/Under: 43.5 (Over: -115/Under: -105)

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

  • Miami was the best team against the spread last season (11-5), covering 68.8 percent of the time.
  • New England was 7-9 against the spread last season.
  • Miami was 3-1 against the spread as a road underdog in 2020.
  • The Patriots were 3-2 as a home favorite last season.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is 6-3 against the spread and straight up as a starter in his career.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

This should be a good game between Jones and Tagovailoa, and the Dolphins are tempting at +130 to take on the road. 

However, I think the Patriots are the bet to make to get the win in this matchup. New England was 5-3 at home last season, covering 62.5 percent of the time, and it should be a much improved team with the return of key players like Dont’a Hightower and the additions of Matthew Judon, Hunter Henry, and Jonnu Smith. 

Since the 2.5-point spread (-120) isn’t offering much more value than the -150 moneyline, I’m going to take the Pats straight up in what I’d expect to still be a close game. However, we’ve seen Bill Belichick dismantle young quarterbacks with his defensive schemes (just ask Justin Herbert last year), and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to take Tagovailoa out of his rhythm early and often on Sunday.

Interested in making these picks? What about fading them? Download the WynnBET app to make your picks.

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