Don’t Sleep on Patrick Mahomes' MVP Odds

I never thought that I’d be writing this column, but here we are. 

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-2 and in last place in the AFC West, which has created some unique betting value in Patrick Mahomes’ MVP odds. 

Mahomes, who opened at +475 to win the award, has fallen to +650 at WynnBET Sportsbook despite the fact he torched the Philadelphia Eagles for five touchdowns in Week 4. 

The Chiefs are only a game back of the rest of the teams in the AFC West, and even though the defense has been bad, as FanSided’s Matt Verderame pointed out in his latest NFL Power Rankings, I think that actually gives Mahomes and even better MVP case.

So far this season, Mahomes has thrown for 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. The picks are a bit concerning, but he’s thrown for three or more scores in every game and is leading the NFL in touchdown passes and QBR. 

The Chiefs could easily rattle off four or five wins in a row, and there’s a chance that Mahomes becomes the MVP favorite again if Kansas City takes down the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen in Week 5. 

This isn’t an extreme buy-low spot at +650, but given the numbers Mahomes has put up and the fact that the Chiefs are prone to shootouts with their current defense, don’t be surprised if he easily has the numbers to win MVP this season. As long as Kansas City continues to trend the right way in the win column, this may be the best value you can get.

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